Washington keeps betting on decapitation. It keeps not working.
Professor lays it out: Iran isn't a strongman state. You can't just cut off the head and watch it collapse. Every major post has three layers of succession now. They learned.
The Supreme Leader isn't some dictator barking orders. He's more like a referee between factions — conservatives vs reformists. Keeps the system in balance. Mojtaba's hedging on the MOU? Same playbook his father ran with JCPOA. Cover both sides, claim credit if it works, distance if it doesn't.
The loud opposition to the deal? Smaller than it looks. Assembly of Experts pushed back hard, sure — that was real. But the grand ayatollahs shut it down fast. Ghalibaf's TV drama? That's just conservative media doing conservative media things. Not a fracture.
Here's the part that matters: 1982, Iran pushed Iraq back and debated whether to keep going — finish the job so the threat never comes back. That same debate is happening right now. Except this time, the country across the border is Israel.
History doesn't repeat but it sure as hell rhymes.
Professor lays it out: Iran isn't a strongman state. You can't just cut off the head and watch it collapse. Every major post has three layers of succession now. They learned.
The Supreme Leader isn't some dictator barking orders. He's more like a referee between factions — conservatives vs reformists. Keeps the system in balance. Mojtaba's hedging on the MOU? Same playbook his father ran with JCPOA. Cover both sides, claim credit if it works, distance if it doesn't.
The loud opposition to the deal? Smaller than it looks. Assembly of Experts pushed back hard, sure — that was real. But the grand ayatollahs shut it down fast. Ghalibaf's TV drama? That's just conservative media doing conservative media things. Not a fracture.
Here's the part that matters: 1982, Iran pushed Iraq back and debated whether to keep going — finish the job so the threat never comes back. That same debate is happening right now. Except this time, the country across the border is Israel.
History doesn't repeat but it sure as hell rhymes.