Bitcoin has dropped more than 70,80% from its peak in past cycles before finally finding a real bottom.
The problem is most traders try to “catch the bottom” too early. They see a 20% bounce, assume the worst is over, and pile back into $BTC… only to watch another leg down wipe out their entry.
That’s why on-chain signals matter more than price alone. One metric people watch is MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to the average price coins last moved. Historically, when MVRV drifts close to or below 1, it means the average holder is near breakeven or underwater. Those zones have often lined up with long-term accumulation phases rather than quick reversals.
Another signal is long-term holder supply. When coins sit untouched for 155+ days, they’re considered “strong hands.” In previous bear markets that supply kept climbing while price drifted sideways, meaning patient holders were absorbing coins from weaker ones. At the same time, derivatives markets often show negative funding, signaling that traders are heavily short while spot buyers quietly accumulate $BTC and sometimes rotate into assets like $ETH later in the cycle.
None of these metrics call the exact bottom. What they really show is whether the market is still in panic distribution… or slowly shifting into accumulation while everyone waits in $USDT.
So the real question is: do current on-chain signals look like panic, or the early stages of a bottom forming?