$VELVET analysis
The size of the drop is what stands out here, not just that it happened. Price went from 1.53 to 0.49 in roughly four hours on the 15M, an almost 70% collapse, then found a floor and is chopping between 0.49 and 0.60 for the last few candles.
Before the crash this was calm range trading between 1.35 and 1.55 for nearly 20 hours. SuperTrend and both EMAs sat flat and tight the entire time.
Then price broke straight through EMA 50 (1.12), EMA 200 (1.42), and SuperTrend (0.78) in a single move, all three in one direction with no retest.
This is bearish, but it's exhausted-bearish, not fresh-bearish. A drop this size this fast usually means forced liquidations, not a controlled trend developing.
The last two candles show the first real hesitation since the fall started, small bodies instead of the long red candles that defined the move down.
0.60 is the level that matters now. That's the last lower high before the final leg down.
Reclaiming it would say the panic selling is done and buyers are stepping back in.
Losing 0.49 again says the flush isn't over.
Watching for a base here, not chasing the drop.
The size of the drop is what stands out here, not just that it happened. Price went from 1.53 to 0.49 in roughly four hours on the 15M, an almost 70% collapse, then found a floor and is chopping between 0.49 and 0.60 for the last few candles.
Before the crash this was calm range trading between 1.35 and 1.55 for nearly 20 hours. SuperTrend and both EMAs sat flat and tight the entire time.
Then price broke straight through EMA 50 (1.12), EMA 200 (1.42), and SuperTrend (0.78) in a single move, all three in one direction with no retest.
This is bearish, but it's exhausted-bearish, not fresh-bearish. A drop this size this fast usually means forced liquidations, not a controlled trend developing.
The last two candles show the first real hesitation since the fall started, small bodies instead of the long red candles that defined the move down.
0.60 is the level that matters now. That's the last lower high before the final leg down.
Reclaiming it would say the panic selling is done and buyers are stepping back in.
Losing 0.49 again says the flush isn't over.
Watching for a base here, not chasing the drop.