Fed just flipped the script — rate cuts? Try rate HIKES.
Everyone spent 2025 pricing in cuts. Now we're staring at the opposite.
June FOMC under new chair Kevin Warsh: median dot plot for end-2026 jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. That's not a dovish pivot — that's a hawkish reset.
9 out of 19 members now see at least one hike THIS YEAR. Only 1 wants a cut. 8 want to hold. The Fed's tone shift is real and it's loud.
Why this matters for your bags:
Higher rates = higher cost of capital = less appetite for risk assets. Bonds and savings accounts start looking sexy again. Equities and crypto? Not so much. Liquidity tightens. Volatility spikes.
Yet $SPX is chilling near all-time highs at 7,420. Market's either pricing in a soft landing or completely delusional. 10Y Treasury yield already climbing to 4.48% — that's a warning shot.
Next FOMC is July 28-29. Warsh will either confirm this hawk stance or blink. If you're holding floating-rate debt or planning any serious allocation moves, this is your red alert window.
Rate hikes in 2025 weren't on anyone's bingo card 6 months ago. Now they're base case. Adjust accordingly.
Everyone spent 2025 pricing in cuts. Now we're staring at the opposite.
June FOMC under new chair Kevin Warsh: median dot plot for end-2026 jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. That's not a dovish pivot — that's a hawkish reset.
9 out of 19 members now see at least one hike THIS YEAR. Only 1 wants a cut. 8 want to hold. The Fed's tone shift is real and it's loud.
Why this matters for your bags:
Higher rates = higher cost of capital = less appetite for risk assets. Bonds and savings accounts start looking sexy again. Equities and crypto? Not so much. Liquidity tightens. Volatility spikes.
Yet $SPX is chilling near all-time highs at 7,420. Market's either pricing in a soft landing or completely delusional. 10Y Treasury yield already climbing to 4.48% — that's a warning shot.
Next FOMC is July 28-29. Warsh will either confirm this hawk stance or blink. If you're holding floating-rate debt or planning any serious allocation moves, this is your red alert window.
Rate hikes in 2025 weren't on anyone's bingo card 6 months ago. Now they're base case. Adjust accordingly.