FICA payroll tracker hitting 12-month lows. Labor market still expanding, but barely.
This matters more than headline unemployment numbers. Payroll growth drives consumer spending, which is 70% of GDP. When this slows, corporate revenue assumptions get tested.
We're not in recession territory yet, but the deceleration is real. Watch margin compression in consumer discretionary names over the next two quarters.
This matters more than headline unemployment numbers. Payroll growth drives consumer spending, which is 70% of GDP. When this slows, corporate revenue assumptions get tested.
We're not in recession territory yet, but the deceleration is real. Watch margin compression in consumer discretionary names over the next two quarters.