NEWT has another unlock coming July 24, 17.84M tokens, about 1.8% of total supply, worth roughly $880K at current prices. Small compared to January's 139.6M unlock, but not nothing for a token still trading well below its highs.
What gets me is the pattern. Every unlock gets framed as "priced in" until it happens, then the chart tells a different story for a few days. Circulating supply is still under a quarter of the eventual total. That's a lot of scheduled dilution left to absorb.
The bull case says usage eventually outpaces unlocks. The marketplace, the Keystore rollup, actual agent volume. All still early. The bear case says supply keeps arriving faster than demand does, and every unlock just resets the same overhang six weeks later.
I don't think July 24 alone decides anything. But it's another data point on whether adoption is actually catching up to token schedule, or just being asked to.
#Newt #NEWT $NEWT @NewtonProtocol
What gets me is the pattern. Every unlock gets framed as "priced in" until it happens, then the chart tells a different story for a few days. Circulating supply is still under a quarter of the eventual total. That's a lot of scheduled dilution left to absorb.
The bull case says usage eventually outpaces unlocks. The marketplace, the Keystore rollup, actual agent volume. All still early. The bear case says supply keeps arriving faster than demand does, and every unlock just resets the same overhang six weeks later.
I don't think July 24 alone decides anything. But it's another data point on whether adoption is actually catching up to token schedule, or just being asked to.
#Newt #NEWT $NEWT @NewtonProtocol