⚠️ We’re staring at a potential DATA BLACKOUT.
No data = no visibility = pure chaos.
Here are the 4 threats nobody is pricing in yet 👇
🧨 1. COLLATERAL SHOCK
Credit warnings are already flashing red.
A shutdown could trigger a downgrade.
Big money is already rotating to Risk-Off.
This could be the breaking point.
2. THE DATA DISAPPEARS
No CPI.
No jobs numbers.
No balance sheets.
No rate decisions.
The Fed will be BLIND.
Risk models will be GUESSING.
📉 3. RECESSION ACCELERATOR
A shutdown kills ~0.2% GDP per week.
Markets are already bleeding.
This doesn’t slow things down—
It pushes us straight into recession.
🧊 4. LIQUIDITY FREEZE
The RRP buffer? EMPTY.
No safety net left.
If dealers start hoarding cash…
Funding markets LOCK UP.
If this shutdown happens, BIG MONEY DOES ONE THING:
💰 ROTATE EVERYTHING INTO CASH.
💥 DRAIN LIQUIDITY FROM THE SYSTEM.