Data from Elliptic reveals that net outflows on Nobitex, the country’s largest exchange, jumped 700% in the 48 hours following the strikes.

This massive exit occurred despite a wider collapse in market activity. Transaction volumes across Iranian platforms fell by roughly 80% between Feb. 27 and March 1 due to severe internet restrictions.

$BTC rebounded after the Iran strike shock, erasing losses quickly on global markets, but local Iranian traders did not wait for price discovery. They moved immediately to secure assets.

TRM Labs attributes the volume drop to “mechanical access limitations” rather than a collapse of market infrastructure. However, the simultaneous spike in withdrawals suggests that those who could access the network prioritized capital extraction over trading.

If these outflows sustain at current levels, domestic exchanges face a liquidity crisis. Users are effectively draining the order books, moving capital flow from centralized venues to decentralized wallets that are harder for local authorities to seize and harder for global regulators to track.

USDT Sanctions Risk and Illicit Volume Signal: Is Tether the Next Target?

The primary bridge for this capital flight is Tether (USDT). Recognizing this, Iran’s central bank directed major platforms, including Nobitex and Wallex, to temporarily suspend trading of the USDT/toman pair. This move effectively severed the main link between the domestic fiat currency and the global crypto economy.

Given its deep liquidity and dollar peg, $USDT  is the preferred vehicle for sanctions evasion and illicit flows This concentration of risk draws a target on Iran’s crypto infrastructure. Global regulators, particularly OFAC, are increasingly sophisticated at mapping on-chain relationships between exchanges and sanctioned entities. The suspension of USDT pairs suggests Tehran is aware of the vulnerability.