Six meetings. Six drops. The streak is so consistent at this point that I think the only honest conversation is about what actually changes it rather than pretending it might just reverse on its own.
Since October 2025, $BTC #Bitcoin has fallen after every single FOMC meeting: October down 30.21%, December down 9.99%, January down 32.77%, March down 13.67%, April down 27.72%, and June adding another 2-3% dip before the Iran deal bounce. The rate decision itself almost never matters — the last five were all holds. What matters is everything around the decision, the language, the dot plot, the communication, the market's interpretation of forward signals.
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge, remains firmly bullish on Bitcoin and crypto, emphasizing that he continues to hold a significant position. While acknowledging the current lack of enthusiasm across the market, he views the widespread apathy as a potential opportunity rather than a warning sign. Scaramucci expects Bitcoin to begin rallying in late 2026 and continue into early 2027. CoinCodex
What would actually break the pattern? I think there are three scenarios and only three.
One: oil falls enough post-Iran deal that the next CPI print comes in materially softer, and the July FOMC becomes genuinely neutral rather than hawkish. That gives $BTC #Bitcoin its first FOMC event in over a year that doesn't carry a "higher for longer" signal attached to it.
Two: ETF inflows sustain for multiple consecutive weeks rather than alternating between positive and negative. Sustained institutional re-entry through the ETF wrapper would change the underlying demand structure enough to absorb hawkish Fed language without cascading down.
Three: Warsh gives a genuinely surprising dovish signal at a future meeting that the market hasn't pre-priced, catching short sellers off-guard and triggering the kind of short squeeze that sends $BTC #Bitcoin up 10% in a day.
None of those three things is certain. But at least one of them is probably necessary before this FOMC-correlated drop pattern finally ends.
$BTC #Bitcoin #FOMC C #MacroTrading #Fed
DYOR. Not financial advice