I asked him one question:
“What separates traders who survive from traders who blow up?”
His answer shocked me.
Not strategy.
Not discipline.
Not psychology.
“Position sizing. That’s it. That’s the whole game.”
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THE CORE TRUTH
> “Most traders don’t blow up because they’re wrong.
They blow up because they’re too big when they’re wrong.”
He’s watched hundreds of traders come through—smart, skilled, profitable.
90% of the blowups came from bad sizing on normal trades.
A normal loss at proper size = nothing.
A normal loss at 5–10× size = account death.
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REAL CASE STUDIES
TRADER A (Blew Up)
Strong strategy (58% win rate)
Profitable for 2 years
Found a “high-conviction” setup
Sized 5× normal
Trade lost
Drawdown jumped to 23% instead of 5%
Psychology cracked
Revenge trading kicked in
Account gone in 8 days
> “He didn’t blow up from a bad trade.
He blew up from a big trade.”
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TRADER B (Survived)
Mediocre strategy (51% win rate)
Risked ≤0.8% per trade
Same size every trade
No conviction-based sizing
Traded for 11 years straight
Started with $50k
Net worth now: $4M
> “He didn’t win big.
He just never killed himself with size.”
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THE RULE EVERY BLOWUP VIOLATES
> “They size based on conviction, not math.”
“This one feels perfect” → size up
“I’m on a hot streak” → size up
“I need to make it back” → size up
Conviction is how traders justify stupid sizing.
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THE DATA (THIS ISN’T OPINION)
Traders who varied size by conviction:
Avg survival: 2.4 years
Blow-up rate: 74%
Traders who used fixed mathematical sizing:
Avg survival: 8.3 years
Blow-up rate: 12%
> “It’s not even close. Variable sizing kills traders.”
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WHY “HIGH CONVICTION” FAILS (THE MATH)
Normal trades:
60% win rate
1% risk
4 losses = -4%
“High-conviction” trades:
70% win rate
5% risk
4 losses = -20%
Loss streaks happen—even at 70%.
Confidence increases feelings, not probabilities.
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THE ONLY SOLUTION THAT WORKS
Same size. Every trade. No exceptions.
Confident? → same size
Perfect setup? → same size
Winning streak? → same size
> “Perfect setups still lose 40% of the time.”
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HIS POSITION SIZING RULES
1. Define base risk (0.5–2%)
2. Use it on every trade
3. Never size up — ever
4. Want more money? Add capital, not risk
> “In 23 years, I’ve never taken a trade above 2%. Not once.”
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THE REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RETAIL & PROS
Retail traders chase home runs.
Professionals avoid strikeouts.
Big trades don’t make big money.
Big trades make big losses.
Pros win through:
Consistency
Volume of good trades
Ruthless risk control
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FINAL WARNING
If you’re changing position size based on:
Feelings
Confidence
Streaks
Needing to “make it back”
You’re already on the path to blowing up.
Same size.
Every trade.
No exceptions.
That’s how traders survive.
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#TradingPsychology #RiskManagement #PositionSizing #TradingDiscipline
#ProfessionalTrading #CapitalPreservation #NoBlowUps #TraderMindset
#ConsistencyOverConviction #SmartMoney