📌 TRADE SETUP — SHORT $XPL
• Entry: $0.128 – $0.134
• Stop Loss: $0.142
• Targets:
→ $0.120
→ $0.112
→ $0.102
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📉 Trade Thesis – Why Short $XPL
1️⃣ Bearish Market Structure
$XPL is bouncing inside a clear downtrend with no structural break. This is a relief bounce, not trend reversal.
2️⃣ Sell-the-Bounce Setup
Price is capped below the $0.135 resistance, making the current move a bull trap.
3️⃣ Whale Distribution
On-chain data suggests large players selling into strength, not accumulating.
4️⃣ Strong Capital Outflows
Net flows show around –$1.46M/hour, confirming capital is exiting the asset.
5️⃣ Bearish Derivatives Positioning
The L/S ratio at 0.46 shows traders adding shorts, not longs.
6️⃣ Token Unlock Risk
The upcoming 88.9M token unlock (Jan 25) adds dilution pressure and increases downside risk.
📌 Conclusion
As long as price stays below resistance, continuation toward $0.12 and lower remains likely once momentum fades.
⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Manage risk.
