As of (Jan 25, 7:00 AM UTC)
The price has shown surprising resilience in the final hours leading up to the release.
* Current Price: $0.1283
* 24-Hour Change: +3.84%
* Circulating Supply: 2.07 Billion $XPL (Prior to the inclusion of the unlocked batch).
* 24-Hour Volume: $59.02 Million (Rising steadily as the unlock window approaches).
Analysis: The "Absorb or Bleed" Scenario
With the unlock just hours away, the market is focused on whether the $0.12 support level will hold.
The Bull Case: The "Priced In" Theory
The price of $XPL fell nearly 25% over the last 7 days (dropping from $0.16 to $0.11). This suggests that many "weak hands" and speculative traders have already exited. If the 88.89 million tokens (worth ~$11.4 million) are not dumped immediately, the "oversold" RSI (Relative Strength Index) could trigger a relief rally back toward $0.14.
The Bear Case: The Inflow Pressure
The 88.89 million tokens represent roughly 4.3% of the circulating supply.
* Exchange Inflows: Watch for spikes in $XPL deposits to Binance,Bybit and Kraken. If the "Ecosystem Growth" wallets move these tokens to centralized exchanges within the next 4 hours, we could see a quick "wick" down to the $0.10 - $0.11 range.
* The Rebrand Fatigue: While the pivot to CONX (Cultural Fintech) is positive, some investors are using the liquidity of the unlock to rotate into trending sectors like AI or RWA "beta" plays.
