Gold has entered a short-term rebound phase after suffering one of its sharpest pullbacks in decades, but analysts warn that downside risks remain elevated amid resilient U.S. economic data and shifting rate expectations.
According to Giuseppe Dellamotta, an analyst at financial news platform Investinglive, roughly half of gold’s recent decline has been recovered, signaling a technical rebound rather than a structural trend reversal.
Dellamotta said underlying fundamentals remain unfavorable for sustained upside, suggesting gold prices are likely to trade in a wide consolidation range below January’s highs or face the risk of another corrective leg lower in the weeks or months ahead.
Recent U.S. macro data has reinforced this cautious outlook. The ISM Manufacturing PMI released on Monday surprised to the upside, with the new orders index rising to its highest level since 2022. While the data did not immediately trigger renewed selling pressure — as the Federal Reserve remains focused primarily on labor market and inflation dynamics — it highlighted lingering risks for gold bulls.
Market attention now turns to U.S. ADP employment data and ISM Services PMI, both due later today. Dellamotta noted that stronger-than-expected readings could prompt a more hawkish reassessment of interest rate expectations, weighing further on gold prices.
Conversely, weaker data could allow gold’s rebound to extend, particularly as markets position cautiously ahead of next week’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report, potentially opening the door for a retest — or break — of recent highs.
