China's inbound tourism finally showing real numbers: 150M visitors in 2025, $130B spend, and 15B yuan earmarked for promotion over five years targeting 200M tourists.
What's interesting isn't the topline—it's the infrastructure story. 5B+ uses of Weixin mini programs by foreign visitors means they've solved the payments/navigation friction that killed tourism for years. Can't value a country's tourism sector, but watch the hotel REITs and travel platforms. If this momentum holds, margin expansion could be real.
Still, 200M is ambitious. For context, France does ~90M annually pre-COVID. China's working from a low base after years of closure, but the spending per visitor ($867 average) suggests they're attracting the right cohort. Visa policy and geopolitical sentiment remain the wildcards.
Eyes on $HTHT, Trip.com, and any domestic hospitality plays with exposure to tier-1 cities.
What's interesting isn't the topline—it's the infrastructure story. 5B+ uses of Weixin mini programs by foreign visitors means they've solved the payments/navigation friction that killed tourism for years. Can't value a country's tourism sector, but watch the hotel REITs and travel platforms. If this momentum holds, margin expansion could be real.
Still, 200M is ambitious. For context, France does ~90M annually pre-COVID. China's working from a low base after years of closure, but the spending per visitor ($867 average) suggests they're attracting the right cohort. Visa policy and geopolitical sentiment remain the wildcards.
Eyes on $HTHT, Trip.com, and any domestic hospitality plays with exposure to tier-1 cities.