halvingupdate

Also: North Korea’s 6-month plot with Drift, Solana Foundation’s new ad and Alchemy AI.
SOLANA FOUNDATION NEW AD ‘DONT WASTE TIME ON CRYPTO’: The Solana Foundation is taking a deliberately contrarian approach to crypto marketing in San Francisco, rolling out a billboard campaign that reads: “Don’t waste time with crypto.” At first glance, the message may seem a bit confusing as a crypto foundation is saying not to waste time with crypto. But according to the Solana Foundation, it is a bullish bet on the future of crypto that intersects with agentic AI. Essentially, what this means is that rather than wasting your time executing transactions with crypto, which might be cumbersome and time-consuming, let your AI agents do the hard work. The ad directs passersby to the x402 account on X, a nod to a growing push within the Solana ecosystem to position blockchain not as a consumer-facing product, but as invisible infrastructure for the next phase of the internet.
Polymarket removed a betting market tied to the rescue of U.S. service members in Iran, after intense backlash and criticism from lawmakers this weekend. The market allowed users to wager on when the U.S. would confirm the rescue of two airmen after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran. The crew members have since been rescued. Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat from Massachusetts, criticized the listing in a post on X, calling it “disgusting” and arguing it reduced a military rescue effort to a financial trade. Moulton has taken a hard line on prediction markets, recently banning his staff from using platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi over concerns that financial incentives could influence policy decisions. A Polymarket spokesperson said the listing did not meet its integrity standards and the contract was removed shortly after it appeared. The company added that it is reviewing how the market passed internal safeguards.
The U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. formally proposed its approach to stablecoin issuers as one of the federal financial regulators required to write and oversee rules under last year's Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act. The FDIC's proposal —meant to align closely with what its sister banking agency, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, proposed in February — will be open for a 60-day public comment period on the lengthy list of 144 questions posed Tuesday by the agency. The FDIC's job is to police U.S. depository institutions, and under the GENIUS Act, its role is to regulate such institutions issuing stablecoins from their subsidiaries. To that end, it posed capital, liquidity and custody standards for those firms, though the details won't be set in stone until the rule is finalized — not likely to occur until the agency spends further months reviewing input and writing the final language. This is the second GENIUS Act proposal from the banking agency after its December pitch on the issuer application process. As expected under the law, stablecoins won't enjoy the deposit insurance that the banks maintain on traditional banking accounts, according to the proposal.
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BTC is up 10% for the month, but the bull run has stalled near $75,000 in the past 48 hours. Here's why.
It is evident from an on-chain indicator called realized profit/loss, which tracks the total dollar value of gains or losses locked in by holders when they move their coins on-chain. The indicator compares the current price at which coins are being moved with the price at which they last moved (the assumed acquisition cost), effectively showing whether investors are selling at a profit or a loss.
Values above 1 indicate increased profit-taking, and the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently well above that threshold. The EMA is used to smooth out day-to-day noise and highlight the broader trend in realized profits.
Profit-taking activity is rising, with the 30D EMA of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio at 1.16, indicating investors are selling into strength. A sustained move above $78.1K will require the market to absorb this overhead supply," analytics firm Glassnode said in a report.
Profit-taking was particularly strong on Tuesday as Bitcoin briefly climbed toward $76,000 before quickly slipping back below $75,000. According to CryptoQuant, investors realized about $1.14 billion in profits during the move, one of the largest single-day readings this year.
The indicator, though widely tracked, has limitations, mainly that it assumes coins moving on-chain are being sold. In reality, they may simply be moving between wallets or exchanges for custody, rebalancing, or internal transfers
That said, the latest profit-taking signal aligns with other indicators, such as the cumulative volume delta, suggesting demand is concentrated on specific exchanges while activity remains weaker elsewhere
The CVD is a measure of who is more aggressive in the market. It shows whether the market is being driven more by buyers demanding liquidity or by sellers hitting bids.
So far, buyers have been aggressive mainly on Binance, but not so much on Coinbase or other exchanges, according to Glassnode
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered exchange Giottus, echoed the view, saying sentiment is improving, but conviction is still not yet fully established
Funding rates remain slightly negative, showing that traders are still cautious and not yet leaning aggressively long. On-chain activity has slowed down. This suggests the market is consolidating, not overheating," he said.
Further, bitcoin options trading on Deribit continues to show a bias for put options across all time frames. It indicates lingering downside fears and demand for protection offered by puts
Taken together, profit-taking pressure, uneven spot demand, and cautious derivatives positioning all indicate that buyers are absorbing supply but not yet overwhelming
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The Indian government is seeking to expedite the implementation of a 2023 law that reserves 33 percent of seats in parliament and state assemblies for women, but has linked the move to a sweeping redrawing of parliamentary constituencies, sharpening political tensions.
We’re set to take historic steps to empower women,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi said before a special sitting of parliament on Thursday as his government introduced three bills to be debated in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of parliament.
While two of the three bills relate to extending the number of women in parliament and state assemblies, a third bill relates to “delimitation”, as the process to redraw parliamentary boundaries based on population is called in India. The bill aims to increase the overall size of parliament from 543 Lok Sabha seats to 850
The bills are being taken up during a three-day special session and will require a two-thirds majority in both houses to pass. Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) holds 293 seats in lower house of parliament while a two-thirds majority would require 360 votes
Women currently account for 14 percent of the Lok Sabha members. “We are all united to give rightful positions to women in India,” Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju said on Thursday
Several Asian countries, including India’s neighbours like Nepal and Bangladesh, have similar quotas for women in national legislatures. India already mandates that one-third of seats be set aside for women in local governing bodies
But the opposition was not convinced. Some members from southern states turned up in parliament dressed in black as a mark of protest.
MK Stalin, chief minister of the southern state of Tamil Nadu and a rival to the BJP, burned a copy of the bill and raised a black flag in protest, urging people across the state to do the same.
“Let the flames of resistance spread across Tamil Nadu,” Stalin said, accusing the BJP of trying to marginalise the state through redrawn boundaries. “Let the arrogance of the fascist BJP be brought down
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Italy will not renew its defence agreement with Israel, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said.
Meloni said her government had decided to suspend the renewal, which happens every five years, "in view of the current situation", without offering specifics.
Relations between Rome and Tel Aviv, which have historically been solid, have recently soured.
Last week, Italy summoned the Israeli ambassador to Rome after warning shots were fired by Israeli forces at a convoy of Italian UN peacekeepers in Lebanon, damaging one vehicle but causing no injuries.
On Monday, Israel in turn summoned Italy's ambassador to protest comments by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who had condemned Israel's "unacceptable attacks" on civilians in Lebanon.
Defence ministry officials told the BBC they were still examining how the government's position would translate into concrete legal and practical consequences on the framework of Italian cooperation with Israel.
Italy is the third-biggest arms exporter to Israel, according to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri). But that still only accounts for 1.3% of Israeli arms imports between 2021-2025. The US and Germany are the top exporters.
Several European countries paused or restricted arms exports with Israel during its military action in Gaza.
The offensive was triggered by the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed about 1,200 people, while 251 others were taken to Gaza as hostages.
More than 72,330 people were then killed by Israeli military action Gaza - including 757 since the ceasefire began on 10 October 2025 - according to the territory's Hamas-run health ministry.
Over the past few years, many Italians have asked their government to do the same, with hundreds of thousands have taking to the streets or going on strike in protest.
Yet Meloni's right-wing coalition government has remained one of Israel's closest allies in Europe, refusing to join the growing number of countries recognising Palestinian statehood.
But in late March, her camp lost a referendum on a judicial constitutional reform, which many interpreted as a vote on her government's popularity - not least in terms of its relations with Israel and the US.
With only 18 months to go before the next general election, Meloni has been tweaking her rhetoric in order to distance herself from these associations, which are becoming increasingly unpopular among the Italian electorate.
Since the referendum result, she has described the US-Israeli war with Iran as part of a growing and dangerous trend of interventions "outside the scope of international law".
On Monday, she issued a rare criticism of Donald Trump, describing the US president's disparaging comments about Pope Leo XIV as "unacceptable". She later added that the pontiff had her "solidarity".
That led to a swift rebuke from Trump, who told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera that he was "shocked at her".
I thought she had courage, but I was wrong," he said, adding Meloni "does not care whether Iran has a nuclear weapon and would blow Italy up in two minutes if it had the chance
Meloni may be hoping the first cracks in the Italy-US relationship will help her claw back votes as next year's general election approaches
At one point, Trump's evident sympathy for Meloni appeared to have earned her special recognition as a potential privileged interlocutor among EU countries, and was touted by her supporters as an asset
But now, with Trump becoming an increasingly unpopular figure, that association risks being damaging. In January, a survey showed 63% of the Italian electorate holds a negative opinion of the US
Following Trump's comments, Meloni's allies rushed to her defence. Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on X that Italy's alliance with the US was "built on mutual loyalty, respect, and honesty
"And on Pope Leo XIV she said exactly what all of us Italians think. The prime minister and the government defend and will always defend only and solely the interests of Italy," Tajani said.
"Being allies does not mean accepting everything in silence, but having the courage to clearly state what one believes to be right," defence minister Guido Crosetto said
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The United States naval blockade of Iran has come into effect as President Donald Trump’s administration tries to pressure Tehran into accepting its terms for an end to their war by trying to squeeze the Iranian economy.
The blockade began at 14:00 GMT on Monday. Iran’s armed forces have called it “an illegal act” that “amounts to piracy”.
Even though Iran has become accustomed to US sanctions and has continued to function during the war, a blockade like this could inflict significant damage to Iran’s economy, analysts said.
How much can this blockade hurt Iran? Here’s what we know:
Iran primarily exports oil and gas through its ports. Soon after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, authorities in Tehran announced what amounted to a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the only waterway out of the Gulf, through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass in peacetime.
The near-shutdown of the vital chokepoint sent global oil and gas prices soaring, and since then, Iran has controlled the strait: Only ships from a few countries that struck individual deals with Tehran were allowed through
But throughout that period, Iran itself continued to export its energy products through the strait.
Iran’s oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz account for about 80 percent of its total exports. According to Kpler, a trade intelligence firm, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in March and has shipped 1.71 million bpd so far in April, compared with an average of 1.68 million bpd in 2025
In other words, Iranian exports through the strait actually increased in March and early April
From March 15 to April 14, it exported 55.22 million barrels of oil. The price per barrel of Iranian oil – across its three major variants, known as Iranian light, Iranian heavy and Forozan blend – has not fallen below $90 per barrel over the past month. On many days, the price has actually surpassed $100 a barrel
Even at the conservative estimate of $90 a barrel, Iran would have earned $4.97bn over the past month from oil exports
By contrast, in early February before the war started, Iran was earning about $115m a day from its crude oil exports, or $3.45bn in a month
Simply put, Iran has earned 40 percent more from oil exports in the past month than it did before the war
But now, with the US military blockading Iran’s ports and the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran’s capacity to export crude oil has been directly hit – and dramatically so, experts said
at least not at the same level,” Mohamad Elmasry, professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera before referring to Tehran’s reported collection of fees from non-Iranian vessels it is allowing to pass through the strait. “The Iranians also wouldn’t be able to get tolls
Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, agreed
He told Al Jazeera that the previous six weeks had been a boon for Iran in terms of oil revenues, but with the US blockade, that will change
Iran has some buffer in the form of crude oil reserves in floating tanks, basically parked tankers, which was estimated at about 127 million barrels in February. But that doesn’t mean that the blockade wouldn’t hurt Iran.” he said.
According to the maritime intelligence agency Windward, as of Monday, total Iranian oil on the water was about 157.7 million barrels. Of this, 97.6 percent was destined for China
Windward warned that all of this oil could be impacted by the US blockade
Besides oil, the US blockade of Iranian ports could also impact Tehran’s trade of other goods.
Some key exports shipped through its ports include petrochemicals, plastics and agricultural products that primarily go to countries like China and India while major imports include industrial machinery, electronics and food, primarily sourced from China, the United Arab Emirates and Turkiye
According to a February 18 report by the Tehran Times, data released by Iran’s Customs Administration showed that the country’s total nonoil trade reached $94bn from March 21, 2025, to January 20 with imports outpacing exports, resulting in a trade deficit
The current blockade will impact Iran’s overall trade and hurt its economy, analysts said.
Schneider said that if nonhydrocarbon trade is disrupted, that will not only be a blow to revenues but also to supplies and lead to increased domestic shortages in an economy that has already been under a lot of strain from pre-war sanctions
The question will be whether this increased suffering will force Iran to concede defeat or whether it will harden its resolve and escalate the situation. But I doubt this blockade will come into full effect or last very long,” he said.
Yes. To reduce dependency on straits like the Strait of Hormuz from the Gulf and the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, both of which are crucial to global trade, Iran and China have developed a railway line.
Using existing railway lines across Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, a freight train carrying commercial goods from China first arrived in Iran in February 2016. Then in May, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency, the first freight train from Xi’an, China, arrived at the Aprin dry port in Iran, marking the official launch of a direct rail link between Iran and China
According to a report by geopolitical consulting agency SpecialEurasia, the China-Iran railway “helps mitigate the risks of naval interdiction by Western forces that hamper Iranian trade, particularly the transport of crude oil by Tehran’s so-called ‘ghost ships
“Dark ships” or “ghost ships” operate by switching off their automatic identification system to avoid detection and circumvent sanctions. Throughout the war on Iran, shipping data have detected the presence of such ships transporting oil and other goods
“Nevertheless, it is important to note that transporting hydrocarbons by rail involves considerable logistical challenges,” the SpecialEurasia report added
There is currently no credible evidence that oil has been transported by rail from Iran to China.
Schneider said that if the blockade persists, it will certainly hurt Iran’s economy. But, he added, it is also unclear how long the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz will last.
It’s very difficult to say how serious the US is about this blockade, how long it will last, how it will end and what is coming next,” he said.
“Most of the Iranian tankers are headed for China, and I cannot see China giving in to this blockade,” Schneider said. “Secondly, I don’t see the US Navy seizing or even sinking these ships.”
“So this is a very volatile situation that will quickly veer into one direction which could be a ceasefire and detente or the other which could be the escalation and the resumption of bombings and missile strikes,” he added.
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Bitcoin has officially crossed the halfway mark in its current halving cycle, but unlike previous cycles, price growth has been noticeably slower—signaling a major shift in how the market behaves.
According to analysis by James Van Straten, the post-halving performance of Bitcoin is underwhelming compared to earlier cycles, where explosive gains were more common shortly after the halving event.
📊 What’s Different This Cycle?
Historically, Bitcoin halvings have triggered massive bull runs due to reduced supply. However, this time:
📉 Price gains are more gradual and less explosive
🏦 Increased institutional participation has stabilized volatility
📊 Market behavior is becoming more predictable and mature
Instead of parabolic rallies, Bitcoin is showing steady, controlled growth, reflecting its evolution into a more established financial asset.
🔍 Why Are Gains Slower?
Several key factors explain the shift:
1. Market Maturity
Bitcoin is no longer a niche asset. With broader adoption, extreme price swings are naturally decreasing.
2. Institutional Influence
Large investors and funds tend to reduce volatility, leading to slower but more sustainable growth.
3. Higher Market Cap
As Bitcoin grows, it requires significantly more capital to move the price compared to earlier cycles.
⚖️ A Sign of Strength, Not Weakness
While some traders may be disappointed by slower gains, analysts suggest this is actually a positive development:
✔️ Indicates long-term stability
✔️ Reduces speculative bubbles
✔️ Strengthens Bitcoin’s position as a store of value
This shift suggests Bitcoin is transitioning from a high-risk speculative asset to a mainstream financial instrument.
🧭 What Comes Next?
With the cycle only halfway complete:
➡️ There is still room for further upside
➡️ Future gains may be more sustained rather than explosive
➡️ Market focus is shifting from hype → fundamentals & adoption
$BTC $ETH $BNB
📌 Reference
Analysis by James Van Straten on Bitcoin halving cycle trends and market maturity (2026)
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Have you ever asked yourself: Am I becoming the person I truly want to be? 🤔

I believe the answer lies not in big life changes, but in the small things we do every single day. And I hope this message inspires you to take control of your habits 🌟.

The truth is, daily habits shape our future more than we realize. Here’s why:

Small Steps Add Up 🪜 – Every day you read a page, save a dollar, or exercise 10 minutes, you’re building long-term results.
Consistency Builds Identity 🧱 – The more you repeat a habit, the more it becomes part of who you are. For example, if you write daily, you don’t just “do writing,” you become a writer.Habits Work in Both Directions ⚖️ – Positive habits push you forward 🚀, while negative ones hold you back ⛓️.Discipline Creates Freedom ⏳ – I believe real freedom comes when we control our actions, instead of letting laziness or distraction control us.
🌟 Conclusion
So, who do you want to become? 🌅 Every habit you choose is a vote for that future self. I hope you remember: it’s not about massive changes, but daily decisions 📝✨.

Stay consistent, and watch yourself grow into the person you’ve always dreamed of 🌱💪.
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