🔥Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations Firm. 71% of 103 Economists Now See Easing This Year.
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The Reuters survey data shifts the macro conversation from "if" to
"when." A clear majority of economists now anticipate at least one rate cut in 2025.
The consensus is no longer debating the direction of policy. The debate has moved to timing and magnitude.
This matters for crypto because liquidity conditions drive risk asset performance.
Rate cuts lower the discount rate applied to future cash flows. They weaken the dollar relative to other currencies.
They reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Bitcoin has historically performed well during easing cycles, particularly in the six to twelve months following the first cut.
The counterpoint is the reason for the cuts.
If the Fed is cutting because inflation is contained and growth is stable, that is constructive.
If the Fed is cutting because the labor market is deteriorating faster than expected, that is a different trade.
The survey does not answer that question. It only confirms the expectation of easing.
The market is already pricing this probability.
Fed funds futures show similar odds.
$CHIP The news is not a surprise. It is confirmation of what the bond market has been signaling for weeks. $RAVE
The reaction in crypto will depend on whether the timing gets pulled forward or pushed back.
Rate cut expectations provide a macro tailwind for BTC and risk assets broadly.
The Iran ceasefire extension removed a geopolitical headwind.
The combination creates a more favorable environment for the 74,000 support level to hold and for a test of 78,000 resistance.
The macro picture is not clean, but it is cleaner than it was forty-eight hours ago.
What is your base case for the first cut. June, September, or later.
$GUN #FederalReserve #RateCut #BTC