In the previous post, we observed strategies positioning for $BTC to move below 61K, including a Long Straddle (68K strike) — breakeven below 61K, and a Long Put (61K strike) — breakeven below 59K.

With this setup, the further BTC trades below 61K into the Apr 10 → Apr 24 window, the more both Big Players benefit significantly.

However, on the morning of Apr 9, the market recorded two notable strategies for the Apr 24 expiry. Structurally, both are relatively similar to a Long Ratio Put Spread, specifically:

1/ Strategy 1 (Notional ~3.5K BTC | Net Premium ~ $54K)

– Expecting price to trade within the 58.5K – 66K range

– Max profit around 61.8K (Max PnL ≈ $3.9M)

– Unlimited downside if price breaks below 58.5K

2/ Strategy 2 (Notional ~3K BTC | Net Premium ~ $57K)

– Expecting price to trade within the 59K – 65K range

– Max profit around 62K (Max PnL ≈ $3M)

– Unlimited downside if price breaks below 59K

🤔 Insight

The core expectation behind both Long Ratio Put Spread strategies is:

(1) Price should not break below the 59K level (as downside risk becomes large and unlimited), and

(2) The target is to reach max profit around the 61K–62K zone.

Combining these with the existing Long Straddle (68K) and Long Put (61K) positions, the overall positioning still suggests a corrective phase for BTC between Apr 10 and Apr 24.

However, the key difference is that this downside move is now expected to be capped around the 59K region. Based on the combined payoff structures and max profit zones, the 59K–61K range becomes the most profitable region, where all strategies benefit from both option payoff and potential volatility expansion (increase in option premiums).

In case price breaks significantly below this range, further evaluation of positioning will be required to reassess the next expectations.

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