Hormuz Has Reopened a Little, but the Market’s Anxiety Has Not Truly Passed
🌊 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire, and that signal alone was enough to make markets breathe out after weeks of being squeezed by supply risk. One of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints has just loosened, so a strong reaction was always inevitable.
📉 Oil fell sharply almost immediately, at one point dropping around 9–11%, while stocks rebounded as the sense of immediate danger started to fade. Markets are often like that: the moment they see even a slightly open exit door, sentiment can turn in an instant.
⚠️ But this relief still feels fragile. Hormuz has reopened only along routes controlled by Iran, while the US blockade on Iran remains in place, so the atmosphere feels less suffocating, but far from truly stable.
🧭 What markets are really pricing in now is not just cheaper oil, but the hope that the Middle East will not slide back to its previous breaking point. As long as this story still depends on a temporary ceasefire, every wave of optimism can reverse on the back of a single new headline.