Bitcoin's on-chain data is flashing signs that the bottom might finally be in. Glassnode's RHODL ratio just hit 4.5, its third-highest level ever, signaling that older coins are dominating while newer, speculative holdings have been flushed out.

This metric tracks the balance between long-term holders (6 months to 3 years) and short-term traders (1 day to 3 months). When it spikes like this, it usually means the market is dominated by seasoned holders, not fresh buyers. Similar levels in 2015 and 2022 marked cycle lows.

There's a catch though. The RHODL ratio has been higher before—5 in 2015 and 7 in 2022—so more downside is possible if short-term holder activity collapses further. But with Bitcoin already bouncing 25% from February lows, negative funding rates, and macro uncertainty as the S&P 500 hits new highs, the setup looks more like a reset than a deeper crash.

$BTC could be setting up for the next leg higher if this on-chain signal holds.

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