Russell 2000 just printed a fresh all-time high — and normally, that would be a green light for altcoin season. Small caps ripping + liquidity flowing = risk-on, right? Not so fast.

For the first time since July 2016, the correlation between the Russell 2000 and altcoins has flipped negative… and it’s getting stronger to the downside. That breaks one of the most reliable signals traders have used for years.

At the same time, macro looks undeniably bullish. The Fed balance sheet is expanding again, with massive liquidity injections hitting the system this week. Historically, that kind of environment has fueled explosive altcoin rallies.

So what’s going on?

Right now, the market feels split. TradFi is rotating into risk, but altcoin charts still look weak — more like a bearish retest than a breakout.

This could mean one of two things: either altseason is simply delayed… or the structure of capital flows into crypto is changing.