So as per my weekly analysis, the selling target I was expecting in gold — which was around $4700 — has finally been achieved. Now, I believe gold can show a reversal from here. I have a strong psychological reason behind this view, along with some technical observations. So read this analysis carefully to understand overall market psychology and my thought process.
If you saw my last market analysis, I clearly mentioned that gold should give a selling move on Wednesday, and only after breaking the high of that selling move would I consider it a valid sell confirmation. However, after Tuesday’s heavy selling, the market moved one-sided upward during the Asian session on Wednesday, made a high around $4773, and then continued falling.
In this move, buyers definitely got trapped, but I believe many sellers have also entered based on technical patterns. They got a clean retracement, and many price action traders likely built short positions.
Now let me explain the technical observation:
From 17th April to the low of 22nd April, we can clearly see a strong lower high structure. Even if you use Fibonacci retracement:
Mark the high of 17th April and the low of 20th April — you’ll see the market reversed exactly from the 0.618 level near $4833 on Tuesday.
Similarly, if you mark the high of 21st April and the low of 22nd April, Wednesday’s swing high around $4773 also aligns with the 0.618 level, from where the market reversed again.
So based on both psychology and technical confluence, it’s clear that many traders have entered selling positions near these highs, and even today, many will wait for a lower high to short the market.
But considering all this, I don’t think the 22nd April low will be swept again immediately. Instead, I believe the market may continue its move upward and we could see a breakout above $4750 in the coming hours.
Throughout the day, traders will keep waiting for a lower high to sell, but I think the market will keep trapping them and continue moving upward. Even today’s high is near $4750, which is a minor psychological level where traders tend to take positions.
So keeping all this in mind:
As long as gold is above $4670, every dip is a buying opportunity for me
I am expecting a move above $4750+ today
As we know, the market moves toward liquidity. Earlier this week, I mentioned that most retail positions were around $4700, and those have already been trapped. Now, I believe stop losses are sitting on the upside, so the market may shift direction and move higher.
For safer confirmation:
This analysis remains valid above $4685
A strong candle close above $4710 can be used as confirmation to start building positions
I expect gold to move upward in a zigzag pattern. So avoid over-leveraging, and trade with proper stop loss while riding the move.
I hope you liked today’s market analysis and learned something valuable. I believe you’re now ready to trade gold this Thursday. Good luck — wishing you a profitable day.
Let me know your view on gold in the comments. ⬇️