The Gulf states are not on the verge of collapse. Their vast sovereign funds and low baseline debt levels provide a thick cushion. But the war has exposed vulnerabilities that years of diversification efforts have only partially addressed.

By turning to private markets and securing the support of players like Pimco, the Gulf monarchies are buying themselves time — and credibility. Whether that will be enough to weather a prolonged conflict remains the single most important question for the region’s economies in 2026.

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