🚨Russia just gave Germany less than 2 weeks notice.

Germany stopped buying Russian oil in 2022 and replaced it with Kazakh oil. The oil still travels through a Russian pipeline so Russia still decides if it moves.

On May 1 it will not.

The refinery receiving that oil supplies 90% of the petrol, kerosene and heating fuel for Berlin, its airport and the surrounding region. A full halt cuts 17% of what it processes overnight. The last time this refinery lost its main supply it dropped to 50-60% capacity and Berlin faced fuel shortages within weeks.

The only alternative route is through Poland's port of Gdansk. Poland is already using that capacity for its own refinery.

With the Hormuz closed there is no surplus supply sitting anywhere in Europe ready to fill a gap this size.

Germany spent four years saying it had ended its dependence on Russian energy. The oil it replaced it with has travelled through a Russian pipeline every day since 2022. Russia has just shown who really owns that oil.