$MSTR bear thesis remains simple:

Once preferreds stop pricing at reasonable levels, the issuance machine breaks. Common trades at discount to MNAV. Preferred divs eat into BTC/share. NAV underperforms spot $BTC.

The whole model hinges on continuous cheap capital. When that dries up, the structure works against you. Not a blow-up risk — just a slow grind lower relative to holding spot.

This is why I've been saying: trade the premium, don't marry it.