Hainan's free trade port experiment continues to show momentum — $333M in zero-tariff imports through April, foreign enterprise formation up 35.5% YoY, tourism revenues at $17B in five months.

The numbers suggest the special customs regime is working as intended. But let's be clear: this is early-stage infrastructure building, not yet a mature trade hub. The real test will be whether Hainan can sustain FDI growth beyond the initial policy honeymoon and actually compete with Singapore, Hong Kong, or Dubai on services and capital flows.

Right now, it's a China-specific story — RCEP positioning, domestic consumption upgrade, policy experimentation. Worth watching if you care about China's long-term capital account liberalization. But don't confuse momentum with inevitability.