Commodity perps are telling a clear macro story right now 👇
CMC Research looked into the most traded commodity perps across all major CEXs, here are some interesting findings:
1. Binance’s Dominance Remains Undisputed Amidst Geopolitical Turmoil
Binance remains the clear market leader, securing the majority of daily trading volume, signaling institutional and trader confidence despite market instability.
🔹Unshakeable Market Share: Throughout February, Binance commanded an average daily market share of 70.61%, critical for deep liquidity in a volatile, conflict-driven environment.
🔹Adjusted Volume Trend: While Binance's average daily volume (ADV) slightly declined by 10.4% in March (from $2.11B/day in Feb to $1.89B/day), the total volume drop across all major CEXs was steeper, suggesting a resilient core trading base for Binance.
2. The Iran Conflict is the Primary Driver of Volume Volatility and Contraction
The market's performance directly reflects the instability caused by the Iran Conflict, which escalated at the very end of the February data period and continued into March.
🔹Sudden Volatility: energy commodities (oil) experienced dramatic price surge since the conflict started on 28th Feb.
🔹Market Contraction: The overall market’s ADV for all exchanges shows a drop from approximately $2.98B/day in February to $2.66B/day in the partial March period.
3. Most Traded Commodities: Precious Metals Dominate
The RWA Perps-Commodities market is overwhelmingly dominated by Silver (XAG) and Gold (XAU).
Top 2 Commodities:
🔹Silver (XAG): Total volume of approximately $107.50 billion.
🔹Gold (XAU): Total volume of approximately $73.19 billion.
4. Shift in Market Trading Activities (Feb vs. Mar 1-17)
Massive Surge in Energy/Oil Trading:
US Oil (USOIL) ADV soared by 21,176.87%, from $0.63 million (Feb) to $134.65 million (Mar), indicating a huge spike in oil speculation or hedging.
Other oil/energy symbols (UKOIL, XTI, XBR) also saw major ADV increases, ranging from 3,244% to 10,192%.
Industrial Metals See High Growth:
🔹Copper (COPPER) trading activity also experienced significant growth, with its ADV rising by 1,826.11%.
Precious Metals were mixed with modest changes
🔹Gold's ADV rose 3.90%. Silver (the most-traded commodity) saw its ADV decline 9.41% in March. Palladium (XPD) experienced the largest drop among key commodities, with its ADV falling 43.60%.
