BlackRock Sees Only Small Fed Rate Cuts in 2026.

BlackRock strategists Amanda Lynam and Dominique Bly suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep rate cuts modest next year. After lowering rates by a total of 175 basis points in this cycle, the Fed is now close to what’s considered a neutral interest rate.

That means unless the job market suddenly weakens, big rate cuts in 2026 are unlikely. Right now, the market is expecting just two cuts next year.

Basically, the Fed seems to be treading carefully—supporting the economy without pushing rates too low.

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