The current state and 2026 outlook for U.S. residential investment (RI), housing starts, and new home sales. Key points:
Data Gap: Critical housing data (starts, new home sales) for Sep-Nov 2025 is missing due to a government shutdown, complicating forecasts.
Current State (2025):
Residential Investment (RI): Likely down year-over-year as a % of GDP in Q4 2025.
Housing Starts: Year-to-date (through Aug 2025) up 0.7%, but with a shift: single-family down 4.9%, multi-family up 17.5%.
Units Under Construction: At 1.317 million, still above the pre-pandemic norm (1.1-1.2 million).
New Home Sales: Down 1.4% year-to-date, despite a strong August.
2026 Outlook (Author's Forecast):
Multi-family starts are expected to decline (negative Architecture Billings Index for 40 months).
Single-family starts will likely be flat/unchanged year-over-year.
Result: Total housing starts will decrease slightly in 2026.
The change in Residential Investment in 2026 is implied to follow this slightly negative trend.
