Sui is heading into January with a mix of optimism and quiet tension under the surface. On paper, price action has started to look better, but the broader context suggests traders should stay cautious rather than excited. The upcoming $82.8 million token unlock on January 1 is not a one-off event either. It’s part of a monthly supply release, and over time these unlocks keep adding weight to the sell side. Even if price manages short bursts of strength, this steady increase in circulating supply can quietly cap upside attempts.
Looking at the daily chart, SUI has been stuck in a clear range since November. Price has been oscillating between roughly $1.30 on the lower end and $1.68 on the top. The midpoint of this range, around $1.49, has been a key level to watch. Recently, SUI managed to push above this zone and was trading near $1.50, which at first glance looks constructive. Flipping a mid-range level from resistance into support often opens the door for a move toward the top of the range, and this was the first time bulls managed to reclaim this area since mid-December. From a pure price perspective, that’s not something to ignore.
Momentum indicators are also starting to hint at a short-term shift. The RSI has moved higher, showing that bearish pressure has eased and buyers are at least trying to regain control. On lower timeframes, there have been multiple bullish structure breaks, suggesting that demand is stepping in. With Bitcoin hovering near major psychological resistance, the broader market environment could temporarily favor risk-on behavior, and SUI may benefit from that spillover in the short run.
However, when you look beneath the surface, the conviction just isn’t there yet. The On-Balance Volume has been flat, showing no real sign of sustained accumulation. Volume itself has been disappointing, staying below its 20-day average for weeks. Price moving up without strong volume often means the move is fragile, driven more by short covering or thin liquidity rather than genuine buying interest. That’s a warning sign, especially with a large token unlock looming in the background.
There is a bullish scenario, but it’s narrow and risky. If price holds above the $1.50 area and manages a clean retest, a push toward $1.68 becomes technically reasonable. That trade only works if structure remains intact. A drop below $1.43 would break that structure and flip the bias back to bearish. Given the higher timeframe seller dominance, this bullish path feels more like a short-term opportunity than the start of a real trend reversal.
Because of that, patience remains the smartest approach. Bulls don’t yet have the volume or accumulation signals needed to inspire confidence. Chasing price here, especially with a supply unlock about to hit the market, increases the risk of getting trapped in a fade. Waiting for confirmation makes more sense, either through a convincing breakout with volume or a clear failure above the mid-range that opens the door for shorts.
The recent bounce in SUI is tempting, especially with Bitcoin showing strength, but temptation is often where traders get punished. The unlock-related sell pressure hasn’t gone away, and it may quietly overpower short-term momentum. For now, this looks more like a market asking for discipline than one offering easy gains.