Bitcoin's post-halving year (2025) closed in red for the first time, breaking a 14-year pattern. Previously:

  1. Halving year closed green

  2. Next year was stronger

  3. Followed by a cycle top and bear market

This time is different:

  1. 2024 (halving year) closed strong

  2. 2025 closed in red

Why?

  1. Bitcoin's drivers have changed:

  2. Less halving supply shock impact

  3. More influence from liquidity, interest rates, institutions, and business cycles

  4. Halving impact is smaller (e.g., 2012: thousands of BTC reduced; 2024: a few hundred)

  5. Bitcoin may be shifting to a liquidity-driven cycle, indicating maturation rather than a broken cycle. 🤔📉

    $BTC