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Ripple’s XRP closed out 2025 on a high note — but the new year opens with fresh questions. After Ripple settled its long-running SEC suit in 2025, investor sentiment surged and XRP climbed to a July all-time high of $3.65. The token has since cooled to below $2, and as 2026 begins open interest in XRP derivatives sits at a six-month low. Still, a small price uptick in the past week hints bulls may be reasserting themselves. On-chain flows point to a structural change in supply dynamics. Glassnode data shows XRP balances on exchanges have fallen to their lowest level in eight years. Just 1.6 billion XRP remains on exchanges — a 57% decline since October — suggesting many holders are withdrawing tokens to long-term wallets or custody rather than leaving them available to sell. Lower exchange supply can reduce selling pressure and support higher prices if demand returns. Technically, traders are watching the $1.90 area as a key defense point for buyers. If that level holds, XRP could push toward the 50-day moving average near $2.04 and then test resistance around $2.20. A decisive break above $2.20 would be significant: it might signal a trend shift and clear a path toward $3 — roughly a 50% gain from current levels — though sellers are expected to defend that zone aggressively. Momentum tools are flashing cautiously optimistic signals. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted on X that the TD Sequential indicator has just issued a buy setup on a more macro timeframe — a signal often used to spot exhaustion and potential reversals. If XRP reclaims the $2 mark, many traders will view that as a springboard for a larger move. Institutional activity could further shape the outlook. 2025 saw the launch of several spot XRP ETFs, a milestone that has already driven meaningful flows: on-chain analysis platform SoSoValue reports roughly $1.14 billion in net inflows to spot XRP ETFs as of Dec. 26. ETFs were a major force behind Bitcoin and Ethereum’s 2025 rallies, and continued ETF adoption could similarly bolster XRP in 2026, reinforcing its narrative as a payments-focused digital asset. Bottom line: XRP enters 2026 with favorable long-term on-chain dynamics and emergent technical momentum, but key resistance and low open interest present near-term hurdles. A pickup in open interest and continued ETF inflows would be the clearest catalysts for a sustained rally; absent those, price action may remain choppy as market participants reassess risk. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news