In its Thematic Outlook 2026, BlackRock places Ethereum at the center of its tokenization thesis, framing the network as a potential “toll road” for the flow of tokenized assets rather than a simple speculative platform. The key question raised is not about the future price of ETH, but whether Ethereum can sustainably capture economic value as real-world assets (RWAs) and tokenized cash move on-chain.
According to BlackRock, over 65% of tokenized assets currently reside on Ethereum, reinforcing its role as the dominant issuance and settlement layer. The “toll road” analogy focuses on where assets are minted, settled, and cleared—and critically, where transaction fees are ultimately paid as tokenization scales across financial markets.
Importantly, BlackRock highlights that stablecoin transaction volumes cited in its analysis are adjusted to remove inorganic activity such as bots, using Coin Metrics and Allium data via Visa’s Onchain Analytics dashboard. This distinction narrows the focus to organic economic throughput, which is far more relevant when translating on-chain activity into real economic value.
Ethereum’s Market Share Is Not Static
Late-January data suggests that Ethereum’s 65%+ dominance should be viewed as a point-in-time snapshot rather than a guaranteed equilibrium. Data from RWA.xyz shows Ethereum holding roughly 59.8% of tokenized RWA market share, representing around $12.8 billion in value as of January 22. On a network-level basis, Ethereum still leads with approximately $13.4 billion in non-stablecoin tokenized value.
The gap between these figures and BlackRock’s early-January reference highlights how quickly market share can shift as issuance expands across multiple chains and reporting windows change. For ETH holders, the forward-looking risk is not whether tokenization grows—but whether fee flows and settlement gravity remain anchored to ETH.
Rollups and the Path of Fee Capture
BlackRock’s thesis emphasizes Ethereum as the base settlement layer, but this role may become diluted if execution increasingly migrates to rollups. Data from L2BEAT shows significant value secured by major rollups: Arbitrum One (~$17.5B), Base (~$12.9B), and OP Mainnet (~$2.3B), all at Stage 1 maturity.
This structure allows Ethereum to remain the final settlement layer, while day-to-day usage fees may be captured elsewhere, depending on rollup-specific economic models. The implication is that Ethereum’s long-term value accrual depends less on raw activity and more on how much economic finality it retains.
Tokenized Cash and the Scale Question
Tokenized cash may become the highest-throughput segment of the tokenization stack. Citi estimates stablecoin issuance could reach $1.9 trillion by 2030 in a base case and $4.0 trillion in a bullish scenario. Assuming a velocity of 50x, this implies $100–200 trillion in annual transaction volume.
At this scale, even small shifts in settlement-layer market share could translate into material differences in economic value capture, making the “toll road” positioning highly sensitive to competition and design choices.
Measuring Signal vs. Stablecoin Noise
Visa has previously argued that raw stablecoin transfer volumes contain substantial noise. In one example, 30-day stablecoin volume dropped from $3.9 trillion to $817.5 billion after filtering inorganic activity. BlackRock’s emphasis on bot-adjusted data reflects the same logic: if tokenization is monetized through payments, organic demand—not inflated transfer counts—is the investable signal.
Multichain Reality and the Shared Ledger Debate
Institutional tokenization strategies are increasingly multichain. BlackRock’s BUIDL fund already operates across seven blockchains, with cross-chain interoperability enabled via Wormhole. This suggests that non-Ethereum chains will continue to serve as distribution and utility layers, even if Ethereum maintains an advantage in issuance credibility or settlement trust.
At the same time, there is no clear institutional consensus around tokenization converging onto a single global ledger. Recent World Economic Forum publications highlight benefits such as fractionalization and faster settlement, but stop short of endorsing a “one-chain” future.
Conclusion
BlackRock’s “toll road” framing positions Ethereum as a critical piece of tokenized market infrastructure, but late-January data and multichain product design show that market share, fee routing, and organic usage measurement remain fluid variables. In the near term, competition will center not just on issuance volume, but on where payments settle and how institutions measure real economic throughput in tokenized markets.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and are solely responsible for their investment decisions.
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