The Fed’s first policy decision of 2026 will be released at 2:00 PM ET (Wednesday), with expectations that the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket show a 99% probability of no rate change, backed by over $582M in bets, reflecting near-total consensus.
This stability is supported by recent data:
Unemployment around 4.2%
Cooling inflation
Resilient economic growth
As a result, market focus shifts to Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
This marks Powell’s first appearance since recent DOJ subpoena-related developments, amid rising concerns over Fed independence and the possibility of a new Fed Chair nomination in May.
Powell’s tone and guidance could significantly shape rate-cut expectations and drive volatility across risk assets, including crypto.