David Lin's take: markets never bought the Hormuz deal in the first place.
Proof? Fed rate hike odds didn't budge after the MOU. Smart money already knew this wasn't holding.
Iran shut the strait again after 72 hours. Least surprising thing all week.
Here's the chain: Hormuz stays closed → inflation expectations climb → bond yields rise → Warsh's Fed forced to hike → mortgages and credit cards get pricier → global tightening → liquidity dries up.
Not just oil either. Nearly half the helium Taiwan and South Korea need for semis flows through the Gulf. That's choked now too.
His call: strait stays shut, $100 oil by September.
Proof? Fed rate hike odds didn't budge after the MOU. Smart money already knew this wasn't holding.
Iran shut the strait again after 72 hours. Least surprising thing all week.
Here's the chain: Hormuz stays closed → inflation expectations climb → bond yields rise → Warsh's Fed forced to hike → mortgages and credit cards get pricier → global tightening → liquidity dries up.
Not just oil either. Nearly half the helium Taiwan and South Korea need for semis flows through the Gulf. That's choked now too.
His call: strait stays shut, $100 oil by September.