Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, asserts that the crypto winter commenced in January 2025, obscured by institutional inflows. According to NS3.AI, Bitcoin has declined by 39% and Ethereum by 53% from their 2025 peaks. Despite favorable institutional adoption and regulatory advancements, the market is experiencing a significant downturn, characteristic of previous crypto winters, which typically last around 13 months. Another analyst challenges the start date, proposing that the bear market began in November 2025, potentially postponing recovery until the third quarter of 2026.

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