CryptoZeno 1

#Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio Enters Historical Accumulation Zone

$BTC
Adjusted Sell-side Risk Ratio (aSSRR) has once again fallen into an extreme low zone a level that has repeatedly marked periods of accumulation before the next major bullish expansion. Historically, similar readings appeared in early 2019, late 2020, early 2023, and during several consolidation phases that ultimately preceded strong upward trends. The current structure suggests the market is approaching another critical inflection point.

A depressed Sell-side Risk Ratio indicates that realized profits and losses have become relatively small compared to Bitcoin's market value. In practical terms, investors are becoming less willing to sell at current prices, while long-term holders continue to keep coins off the market. This reduction in sell-side pressure often reflects a transition from distribution into accumulation.

Previous cycles show that extended periods below this threshold rarely lasted long. Instead, they were followed by renewed demand, expanding liquidity, and a fresh wave of price appreciation as supply available for sale became increasingly constrained. While the indicator itself does not predict the exact timing of a breakout, it consistently highlights environments where downside selling pressure has largely been exhausted.

From an on-chain and macro perspective, Bitcoin appears to be entering a familiar phase where accumulation dominates market behavior. If capital inflows continue to improve and broader liquidity conditions remain supportive, this historically significant zone could once again serve as the foundation for the next bullish leg, much like the recoveries observed after previous visits to these extreme low readings. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Miners Continue to Hold Back Distribution as Puell Multiple Revisits Historical Accumulation Zone The latest reading of the Puell Multiple has declined to around 0.6, placing the indicator back inside a zone that has historically coincided with periods of miner revenue compression. From an on-chain perspective, this reflects that miners are earning significantly less in USD relative to the annual average, reducing the incentive to aggressively distribute newly mined BTC into the market. Looking across previous cycles, every major drop of the Puell Multiple below 0.5–0.6 has appeared during phases of market stress or prolonged consolidation. While these signals have not identified the exact bottom, they have consistently marked periods where selling pressure from miners became structurally weaker. This dynamic becomes more meaningful when viewed alongside Bitcoin post-halving supply structure. Following the 2024 halving, daily issuance has already been cut in half, meaning any further reduction in miner selling amplifies the ongoing supply contraction. If spot demand remains stable or strengthens through ETF inflows and institutional allocation the market could gradually transition from a distribution-driven environment toward one characterized by tightening available supply. The Puell Multiple should not be interpreted as a standalone buy signal. Instead, it serves as a valuable macro on-chain indicator that measures the economic condition of Bitcoin miners. At current levels, it indicates that miner capitulation risk is increasing while structural sell-side pressure continues to fade. Historically, these conditions have often developed before stronger medium- to long-term price expansions, making the coming weeks particularly important for confirming whether #Bitcoin is entering another supply-driven accumulation phase. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

#Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score Falls Below +2σ: Valuation Premium Is Cooling, Not Collapsing

$BTC
MVRV Z-Score has now dropped below the +2 standard deviation threshold after spending much of the previous cycle in elevated territory. From an on-chain valuation perspective, this marks a meaningful transition. Historically, readings above +2σ indicate aggressive unrealized profit expansion across the network, while a move back below that level reflects a normalization of valuation rather than an immediate bear market signal.

The current decline is notable because it has occurred alongside sustained price weakness. Unrealized gains are gradually being compressed as long-term holders absorb volatility and speculative positioning is reduced. Importantly, the Z-Score remains comfortably above its long-term average and far from historical undervaluation zones, suggesting that Bitcoin has exited the overheated phase without entering capitulation territory. This resembles a reset in investor expectations more than a structural deterioration in network health.

From a macro perspective, the market appears to be shifting from momentum-driven expansion toward a phase where liquidity conditions and capital inflows become increasingly important. Future upside will likely require renewed demand capable of lifting realized capitalization rather than relying solely on unrealized profit accumulation. If capital continues entering the network while valuation remains moderate, the current environment could establish a healthier foundation for the next impulse higher.

The MVRV Z-Score is signaling that Bitcoin's valuation premium is fading, but on-chain data does not yet support a classic cycle-top or deep bear-market conclusion. The market is transitioning from excess optimism toward equilibrium, making capital flow and realized demand the primary metrics to monitor in the coming weeks. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #CryptoZeno

🚨 $30M OF CLIFTON COLLINS’ $BTC JUST MOVED

Clifton Collins is an Irish beekeeper turned drug dealer, who made over $400M on Bitcoin - and then “lost” it all. Irish Police recovered $30M of his #BTC and sent it to Coinbase back in March.

Now, another $30M just moved. Was this seized as well - or is this Clifton himself? #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

💥 $BTC My macro bottom call, in one trade

Just a quick one because despite some explanation there are still some (new) people confused as to why I still hold on to the 60k level as my "bottom call level".

The answer is quite simply the difference between actual trading and engagement farming. Where the engagement farmer tries to talk about the bottom with repeated posts of vague and broad levels and numbers, with the sheer goal of trying to be right ("we will rally", "we will go higher from here", "the low is forming", "I closed my shorts" etc etc). Just to be able to tell you "I told you so", without any actual positions mentioned or taken.

So let's not identify ourselves with that. Let's not try to aim to "call the 60k bottom perfectly" and then morph posts in ways that may look good after the fact, just trying to be right and nothing else, whilst deleting old wrong tweets and what not.

Let's just treat this bottom call like any other call, a proper live call with realistic (but bold) expectations. The same way a proper trade works, which I framed so on the chart below.

#Bitcoin 60k is my estimate, 50k is where I no longer believe my bottom call is correct, and new ath's is where I make money.

That's 6.5+ in "loss-to-gain" ratio, a large amount. It is indeed a bold and aggressive call, made since Feb.

This is of course not a trade I took in the literal sense, this is a virtual trade. No one taking these markets seriously takes a long trade like this, you would lose a third of the gains in funding.

The goal is not to call the bottom in an aggressively down trending market to "scalp" a 100x long on that. Again you lose most profits in funding so there is no real added value in that.

So although it looks pretty, there is no need to nail a bottom perfectly to make money consistently. In reality, it only helps to create engagement and morph expectations. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🚨 #Bitcoin Just Entered the Bear Band Zone. But History Says This Is Where Smart Money Pays Attention. $BTC has once again tagged the upper Bear Band around 65K, a level that historically marked the beginning of the final correction phase rather than the end of the bull market. Previous cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022 followed a remarkably similar structure, with price first losing the upper band before searching for equilibrium near the mid band and, in deeper corrections, the lower band. The technical picture now suggests 46K is the first major dynamic support. Losing this level would expose the stronger macro demand zone around 29K, where previous cycle bottoms found long term accumulation before the next expansion leg. As long as BTC remains above the lower Bear Band, the macro bullish structure remains intact. Markets rarely reward emotional reactions. They reward patience at statistically significant levels. If history continues to rhyme, this correction may not be the end of the cycle. It could be the opportunity that most participants fail to recognize until the next all time high is already underway. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

THE WINKLEVOSS TWINS ARE SELLING #BITCOIN

The Winklevoss Twins just moved $60M of $BTC to Gemini, and $7M of ETH. This activity pattern matches usual selling patterns (custody > hot wallet).

The Winklevosses still hold over $300M of BTC. They made ~$1.7 Billion from Bitcoin since 2015. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

💥 Trump made around $635 million from his meme coin.

Meanwhile, retail investors lost $3-4 BILLION in $TRUMP

Trump was right about “too much winning.”

He just forgot to mention who was actually winning. #Macro Insights# #Meme Alpha# $BTC

$BTC By absolutely no surprise, for the 8th Monday in a row,

Monday has once again formed the pivot high, with price dropping an average of 4–5% afterwards.

I have been posting about this pattern for 8 months FYI. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🧨 The
$BTC
CVD indicator shows a selling trend.

Buying pressure is weakening. However, the main stage is the US time zone.

We need to see what kind of movement will occur when they wake up.

The sell wall is decreasing in size, while the buy wall remains solid. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Meme Alpha#

🚨 $BTC NUPL Fibonacci Just Flashed a Rare Warning Signal #Bitcoin has now retraced below the 0.382 Fibonacci level on the NUPL model, a zone that historically marked the transition from late cycle euphoria into distribution. Previous cycles show that once NUPL failed to reclaim higher Fibonacci bands, price entered a prolonged corrective phase before establishing the next macro bottom. What makes this setup particularly compelling is that every major bull cycle has respected these Fibonacci thresholds with remarkable precision. The 0.618 to 0.786 region consistently identified cycle tops, while the 0.236 zone has repeatedly served as the ultimate accumulation floor. If history continues to rhyme, Bitcoin may still have room for a deeper reset before the next explosive expansion. The market is entering a critical decision zone. A recovery above 0.382 could invalidate the bearish structure and revive bullish momentum. However, sustained weakness would significantly increase the probability of a move toward the historical cycle bottom region, where long term opportunities have traditionally emerged. Smart money watches price. Elite money watches on chain structure. The NUPL Fibonacci model is now sending one of the clearest macro signals of this cycle. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
fell from around $63K to a local low near $58K before stabilising. Defensive positioning persists across spot, derivatives and ETFs, while on-chain activity suggests the market remains in consolidation. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
Update & Hyblock Heatmaps

OMG, it was way too hot the last days to work... who can relate?

Regarding Bitcoin, we don't have a close below 59k, not even a 4h close, which is stronger than I expected. We're consolidating here right at main support between 59k and 60k.

But be aware, once 59k gets lost, the next flush will follow.

Bottom is not in yet imo, but we can see some chop first.

If BTC breaks 60.7k, we could even see a bit of a counter trend move for some days.

Have a great start into the new week! #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC Order book pressure shows strong bids stacked just below price in the mid-50Ks, with very little sell pressure overhead.

Historically, this type of buy pressure tends to appear near local bottoms.

If this area holds, a move into 68–69K becomes increasingly likely, where sellers have previously stepped in.

This is a crucial level to watch. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC
Whenever we see a PA like this, it's usually to confuse people into making wrong decisions.

We are just engineering liquidity on the both sides.

Also a lot of people are going to get shaken out of their longs,

And when the time is right, price will pump and obliterate every weak hand. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

$BTC These 2 zones are magnets and I am very confident about price testing them first,

Then reject from one of them and start moving towards 56-58k.

Possible we could go even lower (54-55k).

One thing that I am pretty certain about is that we are gonna go to Low 50s at some point,

Cuz if you saw my BOJ post we estimated for price to drop by 20-25% from lower high (67.2k),

And so far it has only dropped 13% from there, meaning there's still 7-12% of estimated drop left.

Hence, If we get to those zones, I will start building another swing short and will hold it till Low 50s. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #BNBChain#

The
$BTC
CVD indicator shows brown whales selling.

They have sold again at the current price level. However, the trading volume of the brown whales is not large.

On the other hand, other groups are maintaining a buying trend. The overall trend is net buying. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights# #Meme Alpha#

$BTC LTF Bear Flag (Again)

This is like the 3rd or 4th Bear flag we've seen on lower time frames over the past week.

Every one has played out to the downside perfectly.

Remember Traders: ALWAYS respect the Trend! #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

🚨 $BTC Just Flashed a Rare Cycle Signal - Is History About to Repeat? The 2 Week Aroon Oscillator has now printed its fifth major cycle bottom signal in #Bitcoin history. Previous occurrences in 2015, 2018, and 2022 marked the final stages of brutal corrections before explosive bull market expansions followed. What makes this signal remarkable is its consistency across multiple market cycles. Each time the oscillator dropped into the extreme oversold zone below -90, BTC entered a high probability accumulation phase, often preceding a powerful trend reversal and new all time highs. The current setup mirrors historical structures with striking precision. If cycle symmetry continues to hold, Bitcoin could be approaching the final shakeout phase before the next major directional move. Technical momentum remains compressed, volatility is contracting, and long term cycle indicators are aligning once again. Markets rarely reward the majority at turning points. The question is no longer whether Bitcoin is volatile enough to scare investors it is whether this rare signal is quietly preparing the foundation for the next parabolic leg higher. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#

💥 $BTC
is in the manipulation phase.

Every time
#Bitcoin trades sub-$60K, that is our manipulation beneath the significant $60K swing low on the weekly and quarterly.

Precisely the reason why the orderbook is stacked below us. #BTC Price Analysis# #Macro Insights#