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$BTC and $ETH Finish Their Weakest Month of the Year

June was the most difficult month of the year for the crypto market. Bitcoin lost around 20%, falling below $58,000, while Ethereum also dropped by more than 20% and continued its long-term downtrend.

Even with this decline, both cryptocurrencies still ended the second quarter with small gains. Bitcoin finished the quarter up about 1%, and Ethereum gained around 1.6%.

Several factors weighed on the market, including money leaving spot Bitcoin ETFs, uncertainty around major companies such as Strategy, and lower trading activity from investors.

There is still some optimism. Historically, July has often been a stronger month for crypto, with the biggest market rallies usually taking place during the autumn.

#Macro Insights#

Trump Made Over $1 Billion From Crypto in One Year

Donald Trump's latest financial report shows that cryptocurrency became one of his biggest sources of income in 2025.

Here are the main numbers:

$635 million from the TRUMP memecoin and NFT sales.
More than $521 million earned through World Liberty Financial.
Over $100 million held in Bitcoin ( $BTC) and Ethereum ( $ETH).
$1.8 million earned from staking Ethereum.

#Macro Insights#

Germany Leads the EU in MiCA Crypto Licenses

As the MiCA transition period comes to an end, EU regulators have issued a total of 244 Crypto-Asset Service Provider (CASP) licenses.

Germany tops the list with 57 licenses, accounting for nearly one quarter of all approvals. The Netherlands and France follow with 26 licenses each.

Meanwhile, several EU countries—including Poland, Portugal, Romania, Hungary, and Greece—have not granted any CASP licenses so far.

Starting tomorrow, July 1, the MiCA transition period officially ends, marking the beginning of the EU's new regulatory framework for the crypto industry.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Major financial companies collaborate on a new stablecoin project

A group of large financial firms, including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, and Coinbase, are reportedly working together to launch a new stablecoin called OUSD.

The project is designed so that participating companies share the revenue generated from the use of the stablecoin.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Key Indicators to Identify a Potential Bitcoin Bottom

Bitcoin bottoms are not identified by a single metric, but by the confluence of multiple on-chain indicators that have historically aligned with capitulation and accumulation phases.

1. MVRV Z-Score
Compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value (average network cost basis).
When it drops near or below 0, the asset is historically undervalued and often near cycle bottoms.

2. Supply in Loss
Measures the percentage of BTC held at an unrealized loss.
When it exceeds 50%, the market is typically in extreme pain and broad capitulation.

3. SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Shows whether coins are being sold at a profit or loss.
SOPR > 1 → selling at profit
SOPR < 1 → selling at loss
Sustained values below 1 indicate capitulation.

4. Realized Losses
Tracks actual losses being realized on-chain.
Extreme spikes usually mark forced selling from weak hands.

5. LTH Supply in Loss
Measures how many long-term holders are in unrealized losses.
When strong hands turn red, it often signals late-stage bear market conditions.

6. Puell Multiple
Evaluates miner profitability.
Very low levels indicate miner stress, historically associated with market bottoms.

7. Exchange Flows
Net outflows → accumulation
Net inflows → selling pressure
Bottoms often form during sustained outflows to cold storage.

8. NUPL
Measures unrealized profit and loss across the market.
Negative zones reflect extreme fear and accumulation conditions.

Historically, these conditions have marked not the end of the cycle, but the beginning of long-term accumulation.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Chinese Businessman Sentenced to 30 Years in Prison for $1 Billion Crypto Fraud

A U.S. court has sentenced Chinese businessman Guo Wengui to 30 years in prison and ordered the forfeiture of approximately $889 million.

According to prosecutors, Guo raised funds from investors through several fraudulent schemes. Authorities estimate that the total losses exceeded $1 billion.

During the sentencing, prosecutors argued that the scale of the fraud was comparable to other major financial crime cases, including those involving Sam Bankman-Fried and Bernard Madoff.

Guo's legal team has announced that it plans to appeal the court's decision.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Is Strategy Preparing for Possible $BTC Sales? 👀

The discussion around Strategy and Michael Saylor has intensified in recent days.

For years, the company’s message was very clear: buy Bitcoin and hold it long term. However, Strategy has now officially indicated that it could sell part of its $BTC holdings if needed to strengthen its financial position or manage liquidity more effectively.

At the same time, the company has taken several important steps:

- Increased its cash reserve to $2.55 billion
- Approved a $1 billion share buyback program
- Authorized the possibility of raising liquidity through up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales if required

Does this mean Strategy is in trouble?

Not necessarily.

Many analysts view these actions as a way to improve financial flexibility rather than a shift away from its long-term Bitcoin conviction. In addition, the buyback program has not yet been executed, which suggests the company may be waiting for more favorable market conditions.

The key question remains: what happens if Bitcoin drops further? In that scenario, pressure on Strategy’s balance sheet would increase, and the likelihood of $BTC sales would rise.

#Macro Insights# #Strategy

$BTC at $58K Feels a Lot Like $18K Did in 2022

I came across an interesting on-chain metric showing that the number of Bitcoin holders currently at a loss has reached its highest level in the past four years.

The last time this happened was during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin was trading around $18K.

I still remember many people saying they would only buy if $BTC dropped to $10K–12K. In reality, that opportunity never came, and Bitcoin never returned to those levels after the market recovered.

#BTC Price Analysis#

What If the Problem Was Never the Charts?

For decades, traders have been told the same thing: learn chart patterns, recognize formations, and you'll be able to anticipate the market's next move. Triangles, head and shoulders, flags, cups... the list goes on.

However, Peter Brandt, a trader with more than 50 years of market experience, argues something many people don't expect: chart patterns do not predict price.

Based on his experience, even correctly identified chart patterns fail most of the time. He estimates that fewer than 25% develop as expected. He also points out that many of the patterns shared on social media aren't even properly identified.

So, what is technical analysis actually useful for?

Not for predicting the future, but for understanding market behavior. A chart helps reveal where buying or selling pressure emerged, where liquidity accumulated, and where large market participants may have been active.

According to Brandt, the real edge doesn't come from finding the "perfect" pattern. It comes from managing risk, cutting losses quickly, and letting winning trades run.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Have you noticed how the market has changed?

A few years ago, we joined projects expecting a 2x, 5x, or even a 10x.

Airdrops could earn you hundreds or even thousands of dollars, and if a project only returned 20% or 30%, many people would say, "Crypto doesn't pay anymore."

Today, the reality is very different. Now we celebrate 5%, 10%, or 20% gains, because those are the opportunities the market offers much more frequently.

It's not that we've become less ambitious. The market has simply changed.

Big multipliers are much less common, capital moves differently, and the opportunities are not the same as they were a few years ago.

Every cycle changes the rules of the game. The people who are still here aren't necessarily the ones taking the biggest risks—they're the ones who know how to adapt.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Multicoin Capital Sees $HYPE Reaching $300+ by 2028

Multicoin Capital says it is still buying more $HYPE and considers it one of the biggest holdings in its liquid fund.

In its main forecast, the firm believes $HYPE could climb to around $319 by 2028. The prediction is based on Hyperliquid's growth, higher protocol revenue, and the daily token buyback program, which regularly purchases $HYPE from the market.

#Macro Insights#

$BTC drops to lowest level since September 2024

BTC fell close to $58,000, reaching its weakest price since September 2024.

At the same time, $ETH also went down during the market sell-off, falling below $1,550.

Pump.fun Offers Up to $5 Million a Year for a Top Legal Executive

Pump.fun is looking for a Chief Legal Officer and is offering a yearly salary between $1 million and $5 million.

The person hired will manage legal matters with regulators such as the SEC, CFTC, FinCEN, and OFAC. They will also oversee compliance with MiCA rules in Europe, regulations in Asia, court cases, and cooperation with law enforcement agencies.

According to the company, the goal is to build a strong legal team to support the platform’s future growth and expansion.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Could $BTC Hit $1 Million by 2028?

Blockstream CEO Adam Back believes Bitcoin could climb to between $500,000 and $1 million before the current halving cycle ends.

According to Back, $BTC doesn't need a major new event to reach those prices. The market already has strong factors supporting growth, including money flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, increasing interest from everyday investors, and more BTC moving from short-term sellers to long-term holders.

He also revealed that he has made several bets on this prediction and thinks Bitcoin could reach these levels much sooner than most people expect.

$BTC #BTC Price Analysis#

Glassnode Signals That Altcoin Season May Be Starting

Glassnode’s Altcoin Cycle Signal has climbed to 86 out of 100, reaching a level that is often linked to the beginning of an altcoin season.

According to the data, selling pressure on altcoins has been easing since mid-April. At the same time, most of the recent market selling has been concentrated in Bitcoin.

This shift has helped the indicator move in favor of altcoins, suggesting that the market could be entering a stronger period for alternative cryptocurrencies.

$BTC #Altcoin Season#

SpaceX Shares Fall Back to IPO Price

SpaceX stock has erased all the gains made since its IPO. Over the last four trading days, the company's market value has dropped by around $700 billion, while the share price fell more than 10% in a single session.

The stock is now trading close to its IPO level, just above $150 per share. This means many investors who bought after the listing are currently losing money.

After the recent sell-off, $SPCX has slipped to 9th place among the world's most valuable assets by market capitalization.

$SPCX #Macro Insights#

Japan’s Pension Fund May Add Crypto Investments

One of Japan’s large pension funds is preparing to invest in cryptocurrencies this year.

The fund has been studying this idea for several years. Officials believe the crypto market is now stronger and more developed because more people and institutions are investing in it.

They also see crypto as a way to spread risk across different assets and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar.

The fund represents around 1,200 companies and more than 20,000 workers across Japan.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

Many Bitcoin miners are losing money

According to JPMorgan research, Bitcoin has been trading below the estimated production cost for miners for several months.

The average cost to mine 1 BTC is currently around $78,000 based on estimation models, but this number varies widely depending on electricity prices and mining efficiency. At the same time, the market price is about $62,500.

Because of this gap, around 20% of miners are estimated to be operating at a loss.

To cover costs, publicly listed mining companies have sold more than 32,000 BTC in Q1 2026, which is more than they sold in the whole of 2025.

#Macro Insights# $BTC

ChatGPT Helped Inspire Strategy’s STRC Idea

Strategy founder Michael Saylor said that the idea for the STRC preferred shares came after a conversation with ChatGPT.

STRC is a financial product that helps the company raise money to buy more Bitcoin, while investors receive a fixed return on their investment.

Interestingly, the AI-assisted idea is now facing a tough period. STRC shares recently dropped to around $82.5, even though their face value is $100, pushing the investor yield up to about 11.5%.

$BTC #Macro Insights#

More than $185,000,000 worth of crypto longs liquidated in the past 60 minutes.

$BTC #Macro Insights#