AriaNaka

Join the group to trade the positions we are currently running with us.

All signals are shared in the group first before being posted anywhere else. Some exclusive trades are only available in the group, including certain Alpha coins that won’t be posted elsewhere.

Join the group, connect with me there, and feel free to message me directly.

Let’s grow together. 🚀

$BTC New ATH in around 800 days...

Price is approaching the timing window where previous bear markets have bottomed, yet everyone is starting to lower their targets.

With price down roughly 50% from the ATH, the risk/reward is becoming increasingly favourable. Could price still drop another 10-15%? Absolutely. But the risk is now skewed to the upside.

I'm buying. My spot allocation is currently 80%, and I remain swing long from 59.4K.

$BTC 5th Rection at 60k (in 3 days)

Bear Flag Still in Play

Need a close above 60k today, to have any possibility of a 61-62k retest.

If 59k doesn't hold, a drop towards 57k is much more likely.

The $ZEC Whale vs Retail Delta has ended its negative trend and turned positive.

It has ended prolonged downside pressure and is preparing for an uptrend.

$BTC It's time...

Watch how price develops into Monday. If Monday forms a pivot low, it would suggest Wednesday is likely to form a pivot high. Conversely, if Monday forms a pivot high, it would suggest Wednesday is likely to form a pivot low.

The Wednesday pivot typically drives price into Thursday.

This intra-week correlation has played out 8/9 times.

$BTC liq & positioning

Weekend positioning is becoming noticeably more balanced.

> Long liqLevels: 243 I Short liqLevels: 432 (Δ: -189)
> cumulative liquidation levels delta has dropped to roughly $4B, down from $12- $15B a few days ago.

Looking only at 100M+ positions, the picture even flips:

7 major longs vs. 4 major shorts.

> Yesterday we cleared the ~$300M liquidity level around 60.8k and got rejected almost immediately.
> That FVG rejection offered a clean short.

On the HTF, nothing has changed for me. The largest liquidity concentration is still around 57.7k-57.3k, which remains my primary swing POI.

Short term there’s still liquidity around 61-62k, but the larger liquidity cluster remains below price, which still fits my weekend thesis.

So far, the roadmap is clear for me, nothing to do for me in between my POIs

$BTC Remember liquidity runs the markets,

And price always moves where the liquidity is sitting at.

If you look at the liquidation levels in the image below, you will see massive liquidity clusters stacked above us.

It's exactly where our retest zones are and price is surely gonna clear them out soon.

Rn, we are shaking people out of their longs before we start the run towards upside,

It's just a matter of time before we starting pumping.

Not sure about you guys,

But this is a range until proven otherwise.

As long as $BTC holds above the PWL, we could easily see more retests of the mid-$60Ks. It would also make sense, as a lot of stops were positioned below the PWL.

So IMO its time to start observing if we hold above or break back below.

$BTC It'll be obvious in hindsight...

During the previous bear market, the deviation below the prior capitulation wick offered a generational buying opportunity.

This cycle has now swept that capitulation wick, which is why I've been aggressively adding to my spot position. It doesn't necessarily mean the bear market bottom is in, but it does suggest this is the time to start buying rather than lowering your targets.

I'm currently 75% allocated to spot and swing long from 59.4K.

$ADA FUN FACT: The most peer-reviewed blockchain ever built can be picked up for $0.14 per coin.

$BTC If price continues to follow the same time pivots as the 2018 bear market, the local bottom is likely in.

If this pattern continues to play out, it points to a rally into late July.

$BTC weekend outlook

Compared to yesterday, there are fewer stacked asks above price, while bid pressure below continues to build.

Into the weekend we saw some long positioning unwind while shorts came in, yet spot still looked like the main seller.

Positioning hasn’t changed much:

> Long/short ratio remains similar. > Binance top traders are still holding net long exposure.
> Looking at the individual liquidity levels, high leverage positions continue stacking on both sides of the current range -> shorts are way more at risk looking at levels
My expectation for today is fairly simple:

Probably a slow saturday range with occasional positioning hunts. I still lean toward taking liquidity below first, but weekend flows can get random very quickly.

Nothing changes for me.
Levels are defined. Now it’s about waiting for price to come to them.

$BTC We've formed another bear flag on the LTF...

If we follow the trend, we'll likely see a test of the resistance trendline before a reversal to the downside.

However, if price action has enough buying pressure to push through the resistance trendline, we could see a reclaim of $61.8k.

This is the next level with good support.

Looking at Elliott wave theory, the fifth wave signal indicates a test of the trendline above, which supports the bear flag trend.

I'll be watching price action over the next couple of hours for an entry based on how it reacts to the trend.

BlackRock has moved more than $600 MILLION of $BTC and $ETH onto Coinbase Prime in the past two days.

And it's landing at the worst possible moment, with Bitcoin barely holding its level.

This is supposed to be the most patient money in the market.

The firm that sold the world on crypto as a longterm hold are the first to sell when things start looking shaky.

Just a reminder, the 6-month candle closes in a few days.
In both 2018 and 2022, $BTC printed two consecutive red 6 month candles before the bull market began.
It'll be interesting to see whether this cycle follows a similar pattern.

$BTC 3-Day Liquidation Heatmap

Ranges above and below make it difficult to say which happens first.

Smack dab in the middle of 2 outliers.

Upside: 62k
Downside: 58k

My money is on lower after the FVG at 61k is cleared.

$BTC Trying to break 60k

But having a difficult time with low volume...

Still hope we see the 60.5 - 61k so we can short the confluence.

All eyes on Asia

Manipulation comes before expansion.

Study... $BTC

We went from bearish breakdowns at the highs of the range and euphoria above $100k to everyone turning super doomish with Bitcoin below $60k and Solana finally hitting the range low box at the range lows.

For Solana, and the rest of the market, I think it's time to start paying attention again.

More often than not, these types of (mini) cycle bottoms take time to form, so I don't think you need to rush, but it's a good time to have a plan to get involved again.

For Solana, I'd like to see a base form while watching the lows of the base and the two key levels above and below us.

Been taking it slow since Q4 '25 when the total market cap rallied into the range highs.

Now, for the first time in a while, I'm starting to get very enthusiastic seeing tokens sitting at the range lows with massive upside targets.

People are capitulating left and right.

Don't get me wrong, bottoms usually take time to form and are choppy. With summer starting, I could see this chopping up and down for a while, or maybe even another Bitcoin leg down at some point.

But overall, we're in a great value zone now for many things if you're able to look at the bigger picture.

At this point, the lower we go, the bigger the opportunity.

Patience, and no rush needed imo, but it's time to pay attention and prepare higher time frame plans to execute on.

From here, I'll simply let the market form a base, maybe Bitcoin shoots up once more in the 70ks and goes for one leg lower (total mc into range low/green), or we keep ranging here.

Time will make it clearer imo, but have plans ready.