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🚨 BTC WARNING — THE 4-YEAR CYCLE IS BACK 🚨
Bitcoin’s monthly chart is doing the same thing it has every single cycle.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
No exceptions. No misses.
Since 2013, BTC always follows this pattern:
• 2 years of steady growth
• 1 year of explosive bull run
• 1 year of brutal bear market
The bull run peaked in October 2025.
That phase is over.
📉 We are now in the bear market, likely lasting until October 2026.
If history repeats:
BTC may chop around $80k first
Then slide toward ~$50k by October 2026
This is the only indicator that has never failed me.
Save this. I’ll revisit it in October 2026.
Bitcoin Crashes to $74,500 — Market Wiped Clean in Brutal Reset
Bitcoin was slammed to $74,500 in a violent weekend sell-off that shocked the entire crypto market. Billions were erased in hours as panic selling and forced liquidations ripped through overleveraged positions.
Low liquidity turned the drop into a free fall. Instead of acting as a safe haven, Bitcoin collapsed alongside ETH and other risk assets as traders rushed for the exits.
A surging US dollar made things worse. After major political and Fed-related news, automated sell orders flooded the market, accelerating the crash. The speed of the move shows this wasn’t calm selling — it was traders getting wiped out.
Retail Panics, Whales Strike
Small investors have been dumping Bitcoin for weeks, and the crash pushed fear into overdrive. But behind the scenes, whales are doing the opposite. Large holders are quietly buying the dip, treating the chaos as a reset, not a breakdown.
So far, their buying hasn’t stopped the bleeding.
Leverage Obliterated
The derivatives market was crushed. Nearly half of all open interest vanished, signaling a total flush of speculative bets. Funding rates flipped deeply negative, showing traders are now heavily positioned for more downside.
US institutions are still selling, keeping pressure on the market.
Miners Capitulate
Even Bitcoin miners are feeling the pain. Network hashrate dropped sharply as struggling miners shut down and sell their BTC to stay afloat.
This kind of capitulation is brutal — but it usually marks a market purge, not the end.
Bitcoin isn’t dead.
The market just got wiped clean.
Low liquidity turned the drop into a free fall. Instead of acting as a safe haven, Bitcoin collapsed alongside ETH and other risk assets as traders rushed for the exits.
A surging US dollar made things worse. After major political and Fed-related news, automated sell orders flooded the market, accelerating the crash. The speed of the move shows this wasn’t calm selling — it was traders getting wiped out.
Retail Panics, Whales Strike
Small investors have been dumping Bitcoin for weeks, and the crash pushed fear into overdrive. But behind the scenes, whales are doing the opposite. Large holders are quietly buying the dip, treating the chaos as a reset, not a breakdown.
So far, their buying hasn’t stopped the bleeding.
Leverage Obliterated
The derivatives market was crushed. Nearly half of all open interest vanished, signaling a total flush of speculative bets. Funding rates flipped deeply negative, showing traders are now heavily positioned for more downside.
US institutions are still selling, keeping pressure on the market.
Miners Capitulate
Even Bitcoin miners are feeling the pain. Network hashrate dropped sharply as struggling miners shut down and sell their BTC to stay afloat.
This kind of capitulation is brutal — but it usually marks a market purge, not the end.
Bitcoin isn’t dead.
The market just got wiped clean.
$ZEC — sellers tried, got nothing
Long $ZEC
Entry: 285–295
SL: 270
TP1: 315
TP2: 340
TP3: 380
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Sellers aren’t getting follow-through and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this base holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
Long $ZEC
Entry: 285–295
SL: 270
TP1: 315
TP2: 340
TP3: 380
The dip didn’t get continuation and bids stepped in quickly, which looks more like absorption than distribution. Sellers aren’t getting follow-through and downside momentum failed to expand. As long as this base holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
$F — bounce into supply, nothing more
Short $F
Entry: 0.0062 – 0.0064
SL: 0.0071
TP1: 0.0058
TP2: 0.0052
TP3: 0.00495
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $F here 👇
Short $F
Entry: 0.0062 – 0.0064
SL: 0.0071
TP1: 0.0058
TP2: 0.0052
TP3: 0.00495
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $F here 👇
$LINK — bounce into supply, nothing more
Short $LINK
Entry: 9.90 – 10.10
SL: 10.85
TP1: 9.30
TP2: 8.95
TP3: 8.40
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $LINK here 👇
Short $LINK
Entry: 9.90 – 10.10
SL: 10.85
TP1: 9.30
TP2: 8.95
TP3: 8.40
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $LINK here 👇
$GPS – bounce into resistance after an extended push
Short $GPS
Entry: 0.0082 – 0.0085
SL: 0.0092
TP1: 0.0074
TP2: 0.0066
TP3: 0.0058
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $GPS here 👇
Short $GPS
Entry: 0.0082 – 0.0085
SL: 0.0092
TP1: 0.0074
TP2: 0.0066
TP3: 0.0058
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $GPS here 👇
$WIF — dead bounce into resistance
Short $WIF
Entry: 0.255 – 0.265
SL: 0.285
TP1: 0.238
TP2: 0.225
TP3: 0.205
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $WIF here 👇
Short $WIF
Entry: 0.255 – 0.265
SL: 0.285
TP1: 0.238
TP2: 0.225
TP3: 0.205
The push higher stalled quickly and sell pressure showed up on the first test, suggesting this move is corrective rather than a trend shift. Momentum is rolling over again and buyers aren’t getting acceptance above this zone, keeping downside continuation in play.
Trade $WIF here 👇
$DF — Sellers still in control after a sharp breakdown and weak reaction from the lows.
Short DF
Entry: 0.0074 – 0.0078
SL: 0.0086
TP: 0.0069 – 0.0064 – 0.0058
$DF flushed hard, breaking prior support and printing a high-volume selloff.
The bounce from the 0.0062 lows was reactive and stalled quickly, showing weak buyer commitment.
Structure remains bearish with price below key averages and momentum still pointing down.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.0086, downside continuation remains favored.
Trade $DF here👇
Short DF
Entry: 0.0074 – 0.0078
SL: 0.0086
TP: 0.0069 – 0.0064 – 0.0058
$DF flushed hard, breaking prior support and printing a high-volume selloff.
The bounce from the 0.0062 lows was reactive and stalled quickly, showing weak buyer commitment.
Structure remains bearish with price below key averages and momentum still pointing down.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.0086, downside continuation remains favored.
Trade $DF here👇
$ZAMA — Sellers remain in control after a sharp breakdown and a weak, reactive bounce.
Short ZAMA
Entry: 0.0330 – 0.0350
SL: 0.0385
TP: 0.0300 – 0.0270 – 0.0240
$ZAMA sold off aggressively, breaking structure and flushing liquidity into the lows.
The bounce from the 0.03 area lacked follow-through and stalled quickly, showing sellers still active.
Momentum remains heavy to the downside, with price unable to reclaim key levels.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.0385, downside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $ZAMA here 👇
Short ZAMA
Entry: 0.0330 – 0.0350
SL: 0.0385
TP: 0.0300 – 0.0270 – 0.0240
$ZAMA sold off aggressively, breaking structure and flushing liquidity into the lows.
The bounce from the 0.03 area lacked follow-through and stalled quickly, showing sellers still active.
Momentum remains heavy to the downside, with price unable to reclaim key levels.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.0385, downside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $ZAMA here 👇
$COLLECT — sellers exhausted after a steep selloff, price stabilizing at the lows.
Long COLLECT
Entry: 0.0285 – 0.0300
SL: 0.0260
TP: 0.0340 – 0.0395 – 0.0460
$COLLECT flushed aggressively, clearing downside liquidity and stalling near the 0.028 area.
Selling pressure failed to expand further and price began holding the base, signaling absorption rather than continuation.
Momentum to the downside is fading and sellers are no longer getting follow-through at lows.
As long as price holds above 0.026, a relief move higher remains the higher-probability path.
Trade $COLLECT here👇
Long COLLECT
Entry: 0.0285 – 0.0300
SL: 0.0260
TP: 0.0340 – 0.0395 – 0.0460
$COLLECT flushed aggressively, clearing downside liquidity and stalling near the 0.028 area.
Selling pressure failed to expand further and price began holding the base, signaling absorption rather than continuation.
Momentum to the downside is fading and sellers are no longer getting follow-through at lows.
As long as price holds above 0.026, a relief move higher remains the higher-probability path.
Trade $COLLECT here👇
$我踏马来了 — Sellers exhausted after a sharp flush, buyers stepped in aggressively at the lows.
Long 我踏马来了
Entry: 0.033 – 0.035
SL: 0.029
TP: 0.040 – 0.048 – 0.058
$我踏马来了 saw a fast selloff that swept liquidity below prior lows but failed to get follow-through.
The bounce was impulsive, showing real demand rather than a dead-cat reaction.
Momentum flipped quickly and price is holding above the base, suggesting absorption, not distribution.
As long as price holds above 0.029, upside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $我踏马来了 here 👇
Long 我踏马来了
Entry: 0.033 – 0.035
SL: 0.029
TP: 0.040 – 0.048 – 0.058
$我踏马来了 saw a fast selloff that swept liquidity below prior lows but failed to get follow-through.
The bounce was impulsive, showing real demand rather than a dead-cat reaction.
Momentum flipped quickly and price is holding above the base, suggesting absorption, not distribution.
As long as price holds above 0.029, upside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $我踏马来了 here 👇
$BULLA — panic sell-off followed by strong absorption at the lows.
Long BULLA
Entry: 0.0195 – 0.0205
SL: 0.0168
TP: 0.0240 – 0.0285 – 0.0340
$BULLA flushed aggressively and swept liquidity below prior lows, but sellers failed to get continuation.
The bounce was sharp and immediate, showing real bids stepping in rather than a weak reaction.
Price reclaimed the base quickly, suggesting absorption instead of further distribution.
As long as this range holds, upside continuation remains the higher-probability path.
Unless price loses and accepts below 0.0168, longs remain favored.
Trade $BULLA here 👇
Long BULLA
Entry: 0.0195 – 0.0205
SL: 0.0168
TP: 0.0240 – 0.0285 – 0.0340
$BULLA flushed aggressively and swept liquidity below prior lows, but sellers failed to get continuation.
The bounce was sharp and immediate, showing real bids stepping in rather than a weak reaction.
Price reclaimed the base quickly, suggesting absorption instead of further distribution.
As long as this range holds, upside continuation remains the higher-probability path.
Unless price loses and accepts below 0.0168, longs remain favored.
Trade $BULLA here 👇
$DOGE — Sellers remain in control after a breakdown and a weak bounce off the lows.
Short DOGE
Entry: 0.105 – 0.108
SL: 0.114
TP: 0.098 – 0.092 – 0.085
$DOGE sold off impulsively, breaking prior support and sweeping liquidity below the range lows.
The bounce from the 0.095 area was purely reactive and stalled quickly, showing no real buyer commitment.
Momentum remains heavy to the downside, with price still below key resistance and failing to reclaim structure.
Market structure continues to favor lower unless price regains acceptance above the breakdown zone.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.114, downside continuation remains the higher-probability path.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
Short DOGE
Entry: 0.105 – 0.108
SL: 0.114
TP: 0.098 – 0.092 – 0.085
$DOGE sold off impulsively, breaking prior support and sweeping liquidity below the range lows.
The bounce from the 0.095 area was purely reactive and stalled quickly, showing no real buyer commitment.
Momentum remains heavy to the downside, with price still below key resistance and failing to reclaim structure.
Market structure continues to favor lower unless price regains acceptance above the breakdown zone.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 0.114, downside continuation remains the higher-probability path.
Trade $DOGE here 👇
$BNB — Sharp selloff into daily support, bounce looks reactive for now.
Long BNB
Entry: 760 – 770
SL: 728
TP: 805 – 845 – 905
$BNB sold off aggressively into the 728 daily low, clearing liquidity and forcing late sellers in.
The bounce from lows was quick and impulsive, suggesting demand stepping in rather than clean continuation lower.
Downside momentum stalled after the sweep, and sellers failed to press further weakness.
As long as price holds above the 750–760 zone, structure favors a relief move back into prior supply.
If 728 breaks and accepts, this setup is invalid. Otherwise, upside continuation remains in play.
Trade $BNB here 👇
Long BNB
Entry: 760 – 770
SL: 728
TP: 805 – 845 – 905
$BNB sold off aggressively into the 728 daily low, clearing liquidity and forcing late sellers in.
The bounce from lows was quick and impulsive, suggesting demand stepping in rather than clean continuation lower.
Downside momentum stalled after the sweep, and sellers failed to press further weakness.
As long as price holds above the 750–760 zone, structure favors a relief move back into prior supply.
If 728 breaks and accepts, this setup is invalid. Otherwise, upside continuation remains in play.
Trade $BNB here 👇
$SOL — Range lows swept, sellers losing momentum near demand.
Long SOL
Entry: 101 – 104
SL: 95.5
TP: 112 – 120 – 138
$SOL pushed into prior range lows and swept liquidity near 95.5 before stalling.
The selloff failed to accelerate and buyers stepped in quickly, suggesting absorption rather than continuation.
Recent bounces show improving response, with sellers struggling to extend downside after the sweep.
Momentum is stabilizing and price is attempting to reclaim short-term structure from a higher low.
As long as price holds above the 95.5 sweep low, upside continuation remains the cleaner play.
Trade $SOL here 👇
Long SOL
Entry: 101 – 104
SL: 95.5
TP: 112 – 120 – 138
$SOL pushed into prior range lows and swept liquidity near 95.5 before stalling.
The selloff failed to accelerate and buyers stepped in quickly, suggesting absorption rather than continuation.
Recent bounces show improving response, with sellers struggling to extend downside after the sweep.
Momentum is stabilizing and price is attempting to reclaim short-term structure from a higher low.
As long as price holds above the 95.5 sweep low, upside continuation remains the cleaner play.
Trade $SOL here 👇
$ETH — Sharp selloff flushed liquidity into major support, bounce still unproven.
Long ETH
Entry: 2,250 – 2,300
SL: 2,140
TP: 2,500 – 2,650 – 2,800
$ETH sold off aggressively, sweeping the 2,200 liquidity pocket and tagging higher-timeframe demand.
The reaction off 2,150 was immediate, suggesting sellers are taking profits rather than pressing lower.
Despite the downtrend, downside momentum failed to accelerate after the sweep, hinting at absorption.
As long as price holds above the lows and doesn’t accept below 2,150, a relief push higher remains in play.
Failure to hold this base would invalidate the setup and reopen continuation lower.
Trade $ETH here 👇
Long ETH
Entry: 2,250 – 2,300
SL: 2,140
TP: 2,500 – 2,650 – 2,800
$ETH sold off aggressively, sweeping the 2,200 liquidity pocket and tagging higher-timeframe demand.
The reaction off 2,150 was immediate, suggesting sellers are taking profits rather than pressing lower.
Despite the downtrend, downside momentum failed to accelerate after the sweep, hinting at absorption.
As long as price holds above the lows and doesn’t accept below 2,150, a relief push higher remains in play.
Failure to hold this base would invalidate the setup and reopen continuation lower.
Trade $ETH here 👇
$BTC — Sellers still in control after breakdown and a weak, reactive bounce.
Short BTC
Entry: 77,400 – 78,000
SL: 79,200
TP: 75,500 – 74,600 – 72,800
$BTC broke down from range support and flushed liquidity below prior lows, keeping structure heavy.
The bounce from the 74.5k area was reactive and quickly stalled, showing weak buyer commitment.
Momentum remains to the downside with price trading below key levels and failing to hold any reclaim.
Market structure continues to point lower unless price accepts back above resistance.
Unless BTC reclaims and holds above 79,200, downside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $BTC here👇
Short BTC
Entry: 77,400 – 78,000
SL: 79,200
TP: 75,500 – 74,600 – 72,800
$BTC broke down from range support and flushed liquidity below prior lows, keeping structure heavy.
The bounce from the 74.5k area was reactive and quickly stalled, showing weak buyer commitment.
Momentum remains to the downside with price trading below key levels and failing to hold any reclaim.
Market structure continues to point lower unless price accepts back above resistance.
Unless BTC reclaims and holds above 79,200, downside continuation remains the favored scenario.
Trade $BTC here👇
$RIVER — sharp pullback after a blow-off move, buyers stepping in at demand.
Long RIVER
Entry: 16.2 – 16.9
SL: 14.9
TP: 19.8 – 23.5 – 28.0
$RIVER sold off aggressively from the highs but failed to get continuation lower.
The bounce from the mid-teens was quick and impulsive, suggesting absorption rather than distribution.
Momentum to the downside stalled and price is stabilizing after the flush.
As long as this base holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $RIVER here 👇
Long RIVER
Entry: 16.2 – 16.9
SL: 14.9
TP: 19.8 – 23.5 – 28.0
$RIVER sold off aggressively from the highs but failed to get continuation lower.
The bounce from the mid-teens was quick and impulsive, suggesting absorption rather than distribution.
Momentum to the downside stalled and price is stabilizing after the flush.
As long as this base holds, continuation higher remains the cleaner path.
Trade $RIVER here 👇
$HYPE — Sellers still have control after a sharp relief bounce into resistance.
Short HYPE
Entry: 30.5 – 31.8
SL: 33.2
TP: 28.9 – 27.2 – 25.5
$HYPE bounced hard off the lows but failed to get acceptance above resistance.
The move higher stalled quickly, showing reactive buying rather than real demand.
Momentum is rolling over again and structure remains bearish below the recent highs.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 33.2, downside continuation remains the favored path.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
Short HYPE
Entry: 30.5 – 31.8
SL: 33.2
TP: 28.9 – 27.2 – 25.5
$HYPE bounced hard off the lows but failed to get acceptance above resistance.
The move higher stalled quickly, showing reactive buying rather than real demand.
Momentum is rolling over again and structure remains bearish below the recent highs.
Unless price reclaims and holds above 33.2, downside continuation remains the favored path.
Trade $HYPE here 👇
$ZEC — Selling pressure faded after the breakdown and price is holding above the lows.
Long ZEC
Entry: 290 – 300
SL: 275
TP: 320 – 345 – 380
$ZEC sold off hard but failed to extend lower, signaling exhaustion rather than continuation.
The dip into the 290 area was met with steady bids and no follow-through from sellers.
Momentum to the downside stalled and price is stabilizing after a prolonged downtrend.
Structure is attempting to base, and acceptance above this range opens room for a relief push.
As long as 275 holds, upside continuation remains the cleaner scenario.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
Long ZEC
Entry: 290 – 300
SL: 275
TP: 320 – 345 – 380
$ZEC sold off hard but failed to extend lower, signaling exhaustion rather than continuation.
The dip into the 290 area was met with steady bids and no follow-through from sellers.
Momentum to the downside stalled and price is stabilizing after a prolonged downtrend.
Structure is attempting to base, and acceptance above this range opens room for a relief push.
As long as 275 holds, upside continuation remains the cleaner scenario.
Trade $ZEC here 👇
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