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$BTC
Bitcoin is facing its most critical test since the 2022 bear market. After soaring to an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025, the leading cryptocurrency has entered a prolonged downtrend, erasing more than 46% of its peak value. Currently trading just below $64,000, Bitcoin has broken below key psychological and technical levels, including its 200-week moving average for the first time since 2023.
Analysts Sharply Divided. The breakdown has sparked intense debate. Chief market strategist Gareth Soloway has outlined a tiered bear case scenario, putting worst-case support between $35,000 and $40,000 based on a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, though calling $35,000 the worst case rather than a base case. Meanwhile, quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen has released new research showing Bitcoin's price distribution is flattening faster at its ceiling than at its floor—the upper bands tracing speculative peaks are bending inward, while the lower bands tracking structural support stay roughly straight. Cowen concludes that "moonshot targets are fading" as diminishing reflexivity caps blow-off tops closer to the long-run trend with each cycle.
Signs of Relief. Yet not all signals are bearish. The Relative Strength Index sits at 22.7, deep into oversold territory—levels that in theory suggest sellers may have pushed too hard. The 200-week moving average, now being retested, has historically marked major turning points and preceded significant recoveries in past cycles. As one analyst noted, "It's anyone's guess in the short term," but the convergence of multiple historical support levels suggests the setup for a relief bounce is increasingly probable.
#NEW #buy