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Macro update: the labor market and manufacturing are giving the Fed free hands
A fresh batch of macro data just dropped, and the numbers perfectly reinforce Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone from yesterday. We’re seeing the classic setup: good news for the economy = bad news for the markets.
📊 Breaking down the raw numbers:
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar): Actual 18.1 | Forecast 8.3 | Previous 16.3 — manufacturing is showing a strong jump, coming in more than 2x above expectations.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 205K | Forecast 215K | Previous 213K — lower than expected. The labor market remains tight and strong.
• New Home Sales (Jan): Actual 587K | Forecast 722K | Previous 712K — this is where it hurts. Housing sales dropped off hard. The real estate sector is struggling under high rates.
What it means for us:
This data gives the Federal Reserve a solid argument not to rush into rate cuts. The economy is holding up: unemployment isn’t rising, and manufacturing is picking up.
Yes, housing is cracking, but as long as inflation and the labor market stay hot, the regulator won’t back off.
For crypto and equities:
Short-term, this is a bearish signal. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gets fuel on this kind of data, pulling liquidity away from risk assets.
#macro #news
A fresh batch of macro data just dropped, and the numbers perfectly reinforce Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone from yesterday. We’re seeing the classic setup: good news for the economy = bad news for the markets.
📊 Breaking down the raw numbers:
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar): Actual 18.1 | Forecast 8.3 | Previous 16.3 — manufacturing is showing a strong jump, coming in more than 2x above expectations.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Actual 205K | Forecast 215K | Previous 213K — lower than expected. The labor market remains tight and strong.
• New Home Sales (Jan): Actual 587K | Forecast 722K | Previous 712K — this is where it hurts. Housing sales dropped off hard. The real estate sector is struggling under high rates.
What it means for us:
This data gives the Federal Reserve a solid argument not to rush into rate cuts. The economy is holding up: unemployment isn’t rising, and manufacturing is picking up.
Yes, housing is cracking, but as long as inflation and the labor market stay hot, the regulator won’t back off.
For crypto and equities:
Short-term, this is a bearish signal. The US Dollar Index (DXY) gets fuel on this kind of data, pulling liquidity away from risk assets.
#macro #news
Geopolitics & Macro: 19 days into the Middle East escalation
The conflict with Iran is still ramping up, draining liquidity from the markets and fueling fresh inflation risks. Here’s the raw breakdown from less than three weeks of escalation — and how it’s hitting the US economy:
💸 Cash burn rate: The military campaign is costing the US about $1B per day, with the total bill already nearing $24B.
🪖 Scale of the operation: Around 50,000 US troops have been deployed to the Middle East, with over 11,500 combat sorties flown so far.
⛽️ Fuel shock: Average gasoline prices in the US are up 40% since December — a direct trigger for future CPI spikes, something the Federal Reserve has been fighting hard to contain.
🛢 Oil dislocation: The price spread between US and Middle East crude has blown out to an extreme 60% gap.
🏛 Political risk: On top of all this, impeachment odds for Donald Trump have surged to a record 72%.
📌 P.S. Donald Trump has officially postponed his planned China visit by one month. The market is reading this loud and clear — no de-escalation expected in the next 30 days. Geopolitical tension and market turbulence aren’t going anywhere.
#news #Geopolitics
The conflict with Iran is still ramping up, draining liquidity from the markets and fueling fresh inflation risks. Here’s the raw breakdown from less than three weeks of escalation — and how it’s hitting the US economy:
💸 Cash burn rate: The military campaign is costing the US about $1B per day, with the total bill already nearing $24B.
🪖 Scale of the operation: Around 50,000 US troops have been deployed to the Middle East, with over 11,500 combat sorties flown so far.
⛽️ Fuel shock: Average gasoline prices in the US are up 40% since December — a direct trigger for future CPI spikes, something the Federal Reserve has been fighting hard to contain.
🛢 Oil dislocation: The price spread between US and Middle East crude has blown out to an extreme 60% gap.
🏛 Political risk: On top of all this, impeachment odds for Donald Trump have surged to a record 72%.
📌 P.S. Donald Trump has officially postponed his planned China visit by one month. The market is reading this loud and clear — no de-escalation expected in the next 30 days. Geopolitical tension and market turbulence aren’t going anywhere.
#news #Geopolitics
$BTC here’s a ton of liquidity stacked around the $69–70k zone right now, and if it gets swept, longs could see roughly $5B in liquidations.
For market makers/manipulators, this area is a major liquidity magnet — and it’s only a matter of time before it gets taken.
#BTC #liquidity
For market makers/manipulators, this area is a major liquidity magnet — and it’s only a matter of time before it gets taken.
#BTC #liquidity
$BTC — a hedge asset during wars
You can now confidently say that BTC has turned into a local “safe haven” during the conflict, outperforming other risk assets and even gold.
Today we broke a new local high at $76k and continued the short squeeze — the kind we haven’t seen in a while: over the past two days, nearly $1B in shorts got liquidated.
At the same time, we’re seeing some whales активно accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum, positioning for the long term into the next cycle, while others are already closing out their spec plays and swing trades, locking in profits.
Which also makes sense: if you look at the chart, we’re repeating the previous bear flag and moving almost perfectly in line with the 2022 pattern. If it plays out, the $76k ± level could end up being the local top of this trading range.
What to do now: intraday is a must. If you’re planning to accumulate BTC for the long term, it’s better to wait for a pullback and a cleaner entry — especially since your first spot buy is already in the $60–64k range.
Also, it’s a good time to start building a watchlist of strong alts you see potential in for the next cycle. And of course, make sure your stables are working for you while market activity is low — that’s key.
#BTC
You can now confidently say that BTC has turned into a local “safe haven” during the conflict, outperforming other risk assets and even gold.
Today we broke a new local high at $76k and continued the short squeeze — the kind we haven’t seen in a while: over the past two days, nearly $1B in shorts got liquidated.
At the same time, we’re seeing some whales активно accumulating Bitcoin and Ethereum, positioning for the long term into the next cycle, while others are already closing out their spec plays and swing trades, locking in profits.
Which also makes sense: if you look at the chart, we’re repeating the previous bear flag and moving almost perfectly in line with the 2022 pattern. If it plays out, the $76k ± level could end up being the local top of this trading range.
What to do now: intraday is a must. If you’re planning to accumulate BTC for the long term, it’s better to wait for a pullback and a cleaner entry — especially since your first spot buy is already in the $60–64k range.
Also, it’s a good time to start building a watchlist of strong alts you see potential in for the next cycle. And of course, make sure your stables are working for you while market activity is low — that’s key.
#BTC
On $XRP , I’ll try to catch a long from the 4H imbalance retest.
Ideally, I want to see:
• a liquidity sweep
• stop hunts from market participants
• previous highs taken
• the 4H imbalance filled
From that area I’ll start looking for shorts, targeting the levels shown on the chart.
Overall, the setup looks very clean.
#xrp #setup
Ideally, I want to see:
• a liquidity sweep
• stop hunts from market participants
• previous highs taken
• the 4H imbalance filled
From that area I’ll start looking for shorts, targeting the levels shown on the chart.
Overall, the setup looks very clean.
#xrp #setup
$BTC
This is exactly why holding above the $70,000 range has been difficult.
A huge amount of liquidity has built up above, all the way up to $80K. The situation is very fragile, and honestly no one in the market knows exactly what happens next.
There are two main scenarios:
1️⃣ They push price toward $80K, sweeping all the buy-side liquidity, and then — if U.S. markets start to crash — we could see a broad sell-off across all markets, sending Bitcoin back toward ~$55K.
2️⃣ Or they start selling from current levels, not giving retail traders the chance to build short positions, and simply bleed the market down slowly.
For now — we watch and wait.
The global situation keeps escalating, and the news flow is getting worse day by day, with no clear relief in sight.
Since it’s the weekend, the market is relatively quiet.
The real volatility carousel will likely start on Monday, especially with a macro-heavy week ahead.
#BTC #liquidity
This is exactly why holding above the $70,000 range has been difficult.
A huge amount of liquidity has built up above, all the way up to $80K. The situation is very fragile, and honestly no one in the market knows exactly what happens next.
There are two main scenarios:
1️⃣ They push price toward $80K, sweeping all the buy-side liquidity, and then — if U.S. markets start to crash — we could see a broad sell-off across all markets, sending Bitcoin back toward ~$55K.
2️⃣ Or they start selling from current levels, not giving retail traders the chance to build short positions, and simply bleed the market down slowly.
For now — we watch and wait.
The global situation keeps escalating, and the news flow is getting worse day by day, with no clear relief in sight.
Since it’s the weekend, the market is relatively quiet.
The real volatility carousel will likely start on Monday, especially with a macro-heavy week ahead.
#BTC #liquidity
$BTC $ETH
Morning bounce of ~1% 🟢
This move is within expectations. $72,000 is the key breakout level.
If $72K gets reclaimed and we see acceptance above it, the market could push higher.
But until that level is broken, the scenario remains short-biased.
If we do break above, I’ll close part of my short at breakeven and look to re-enter around $75K.
In any case, if I’m seeing a global short setup in the U.S. equities market, crypto won’t be able to rally during a strong sell-off in stocks.
**Bitcoin would likely follow the downside as well.
#BTC #ETH
Morning bounce of ~1% 🟢
This move is within expectations. $72,000 is the key breakout level.
If $72K gets reclaimed and we see acceptance above it, the market could push higher.
But until that level is broken, the scenario remains short-biased.
If we do break above, I’ll close part of my short at breakeven and look to re-enter around $75K.
In any case, if I’m seeing a global short setup in the U.S. equities market, crypto won’t be able to rally during a strong sell-off in stocks.
**Bitcoin would likely follow the downside as well.
#BTC #ETH
$ETH : funding is positive across the market (longs are overcrowded / overheated). Bid-side liquidity below is ~10x larger, while liquidity above is thin.
Anyone aping into longs here doesn’t understand how those positions are about to get wiped out.
#ETH #liquidity #setup
Anyone aping into longs here doesn’t understand how those positions are about to get wiped out.
#ETH #liquidity #setup
$BTC
Funding is still overheated, and most of the liquidity above has already been taken. The only thing left is an unfilled 4H imbalance — they could fill it, take out the previous high, and run all the stops.
Meanwhile, there’s a ton of liquidity sitting below.
#BTC #liquidity #setup #short
Funding is still overheated, and most of the liquidity above has already been taken. The only thing left is an unfilled 4H imbalance — they could fill it, take out the previous high, and run all the stops.
Meanwhile, there’s a ton of liquidity sitting below.
#BTC #liquidity #setup #short
🎁 Goldman Sachs is forecasting an extreme market rally after the current instability.
According to the firm, which manages around $3.5T in assets, low market liquidity could lead to sharp price spikes when large orders hit the market.
Any positive news about a resolution of the conflict with Iran could trigger an immediate surge in market prices.
I fully agree, but there’s one nuance. Because there’s no media hygiene nowadays, very few people can actually tell what’s fake and what’s real anymore.
#news
According to the firm, which manages around $3.5T in assets, low market liquidity could lead to sharp price spikes when large orders hit the market.
Any positive news about a resolution of the conflict with Iran could trigger an immediate surge in market prices.
I fully agree, but there’s one nuance. Because there’s no media hygiene nowadays, very few people can actually tell what’s fake and what’s real anymore.
#news
$ICP
Weakness is clearly visible.
If buyers don’t step in to defend the level, I’d like to see a short setup like this.
Weakness is clearly visible.
If buyers don’t step in to defend the level, I’d like to see a short setup like this.
😨 An interesting trader from HL is on the radar.
He’s running a 100% win rate since the start of the Iran-Israel conflict escalation.
Today he opened new positions:
• $70M short on BTC
• $18M short on ETH
• $2.6M long on oil
Since March 1, he has closed all 12 trades in profit, making roughly $27M.
Definitely a trader worth keeping an eye on.
#news #BTC #ETH #oil
He’s running a 100% win rate since the start of the Iran-Israel conflict escalation.
Today he opened new positions:
• $70M short on BTC
• $18M short on ETH
• $2.6M long on oil
Since March 1, he has closed all 12 trades in profit, making roughly $27M.
Definitely a trader worth keeping an eye on.
#news #BTC #ETH #oil
⚡️Macro Update: CPI Inflation Data — In Line With Expectations
Key U.S. inflation data has just been released. The numbers came exactly in line with market expectations, with no major surprises.
📊 The numbers:
• CPI (MoM) — Feb: Actual 0.3% | Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.2%
• CPI (YoY) — Feb: Actual 2.4% | Forecast 2.4% | Previous 2.4%
• Core CPI (MoM) — Feb: Actual 0.2% | Forecast 0.2% | Previous 0.3%
What this means for the market:
Inflation didn’t deliver any negative surprises, which eases some pressure on equities and crypto markets. Core CPI even showed a slight decline compared to last month (0.2% vs 0.3%).
For the Federal Reserve, this is a constructive signal — they can likely keep rates steady without aggressive moves, reducing the probability of a strong risk-off scenario we discussed earlier.
Market reaction:
Markets will likely react positively, as the worst-case fears didn’t materialize.
However, don’t forget about the usual “helicopter” volatility algorithms like to create in the first minutes after major macro releases.
Game plan:
Let the dust settle first.
Wait for market makers to finish shaking out impatient traders on both sides.
Once clear volume and tape aggression appear, we’ll start looking for long setups on our in-play alts that are holding just below their highs.
#macro #NewsAboutCrypto #crypto
Key U.S. inflation data has just been released. The numbers came exactly in line with market expectations, with no major surprises.
📊 The numbers:
• CPI (MoM) — Feb: Actual 0.3% | Forecast 0.3% | Previous 0.2%
• CPI (YoY) — Feb: Actual 2.4% | Forecast 2.4% | Previous 2.4%
• Core CPI (MoM) — Feb: Actual 0.2% | Forecast 0.2% | Previous 0.3%
What this means for the market:
Inflation didn’t deliver any negative surprises, which eases some pressure on equities and crypto markets. Core CPI even showed a slight decline compared to last month (0.2% vs 0.3%).
For the Federal Reserve, this is a constructive signal — they can likely keep rates steady without aggressive moves, reducing the probability of a strong risk-off scenario we discussed earlier.
Market reaction:
Markets will likely react positively, as the worst-case fears didn’t materialize.
However, don’t forget about the usual “helicopter” volatility algorithms like to create in the first minutes after major macro releases.
Game plan:
Let the dust settle first.
Wait for market makers to finish shaking out impatient traders on both sides.
Once clear volume and tape aggression appear, we’ll start looking for long setups on our in-play alts that are holding just below their highs.
#macro #NewsAboutCrypto #crypto
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