James Adrian

#oilpricefalls The oil complex is licking its wounds after a historic bloodbath. While spot prices are grinding sideways, Brent just locked in its worst month (-19.94% in June) and worst quarter (-28.99% in Q2) since 2020. The macro forces are locked in a vicious tug-of-war: The Bear Case: US production hit a record 13.93M bpd in April. Worse, Morgan Stanley warns of a massive 4.8M bpd structural global surplus by 2027 as OPEC+ cuts unwind. The Bull Case: UBS notes the risk premium isn't dead—recent weakness is just a temporary wave of previously stranded Gulf ships hitting the market. Plus, both Brent (13 days) and WTI (11 days) are deeply trapped in technically oversold territory. With API flashing a massive 6M+ barrel draw, all eyes are on tonight's official EIA print (consensus: -4.5M). $BTW $AERO $CLO