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Gold prices rebounded this week after experiencing a pullback, driven by renewed buying interest. According to Jin10, stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data and stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations have cast a shadow over market prospects. Mitsubishi UFJ analyst Soojin Kim noted that the market has already priced in a more than 40% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by the end of the year, which has increased U.S. Treasury yields and pressured gold. She added that despite the pressure from potential rate hikes and high inflation triggered by soaring energy prices, gold prices have shown relative resilience due to strong demand from central banks.

Microsoft set a target to achieve a $92 billion return from its early significant investment in OpenAI, according to Bloomberg. This information was revealed during a court hearing on May 11 in Oakland, California, involving a lawsuit filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI and Microsoft. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in court that the investment was successful because the company took on the associated risks.

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed serious consideration of designating Venezuela as the 51st state of the United States. According to Odaily, Trump also commented on the situation with Iran, stating that no one currently wants to be the President of Iran. He criticized Iranian negotiators for frequently changing their positions and accused them of lacking integrity. Trump described Iran as a beautiful country but criticized its current leadership as incompetent.

A source close to the Iranian negotiation team revealed that Iran has set a clear deadline for the unfreezing of its frozen funds in its proposal. The U.S. proposal includes the unfreezing of these funds, but Iran insists that this must occur within a specified timeframe. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader remarked that Trump's desire to take advantage of the current "calm" situation is naive.

On May 11, a Bitcoin wallet that had been inactive for over 12 years transferred all 500 BTC, according to BlockBeats On-chain Detection. The transaction occurred four hours prior to the report. The wallet initially acquired Bitcoin at an average price of approximately $914, resulting in a current profit of around $40.17 million, reflecting a return rate of 88 times the original investment.

Wall Street's most speculative options binge in history is sending mixed signals to crypto markets. The surge in bullish S&P 500 bets is lifting Bitcoin — but the same frenzied momentum that's driving stocks higher could trigger a sharp reversal across all risk assets.
Key takeaways
Record S&P 500 call options volume — $2.6 trillion in a single day — signals an unprecedented surge in speculative risk appetite on Wall Street.Bitcoin benefits directly: its positive correlation with U.S. equities means a rising stock market has already helped lift BTC from under $70,000 to $80,000 since early April.The same speculative frenzy is a warning sign. Overcrowded bullish positioning leaves all risk assets — including crypto — exposed to sharp, sudden reversals.
What happened: a record-breaking day for S&P 500 call options
On Wednesday, U.S. equity derivative exchanges recorded a single-day notional volume of $2.6 trillion in S&P 500 call options, according to data tracked by Zero Hedge. That figure accounted for 60% of all S&P 500 options activity — meaning bullish bets overwhelmingly dominated the market.
To put the scale in perspective: $2.6 trillion nearly matches the entire crypto market's combined capitalization of $2.73 trillion — the aggregate value of thousands of cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin accounting for the largest share. In a single trading session, Wall Street placed directional bets roughly equivalent to the worth of all digital assets on earth.
A call option gives a trader the right to buy the index above a specified price before expiration — in simple terms, it's a bet that stocks will go up. The sheer scale and one-sided nature of Wednesday's activity suggests the market is not just optimistic; it is aggressively chasing upside.
Why this matters for Bitcoin: the S&P 500–BTC correlation
Bitcoin doesn't operate in a vacuum. Over the past several years, analysts have repeatedly documented a positive correlation between BTC and U.S. equity indices — when stocks rise, crypto tends to follow, and vice versa.
That dynamic has been on full display recently. Double-digit gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since early April directly contributed to Bitcoin's rally from under $70,000 to above $80,000 over the same period.
QCP Capital on BTC breaking $80,000: "After a solid April, BTC has begun May on firm footing, breaking above $80k for the first time since January 31. The move appears aligned with equities, reinforcing a broader trend as BTC's correlation with U.S. stocks climbs back toward 2023 levels, signaling a renewed linkage with risk assets broadly."
In this context, a speculative surge in the S&P 500 driven by record call options volume is, on the surface, a bullish signal for Bitcoin. More risk appetite on Wall Street historically means more capital flowing into high-beta assets — and few assets are higher beta than cryptocurrency.
The bullish case vs. the hidden risk
Bullish for Bitcoin
Record speculative appetite in equities historically spills over into crypto. BTC's rising correlation with U.S. stocks means continued stock market strength could push prices higher.
Risk to watch
Overcrowded bullish positioning is a classic contrarian warning sign. A sudden stall in equity momentum could trigger forced selling across stocks and crypto simultaneously.
 Signs of speculative excess: what analysts are warning
The record call options volume has not gone unnoticed. Across financial social media, traders and analysts flagged Wednesday's activity as a sign of an overcrowded trade. When market positioning becomes too one-sided — in this case, overwhelmingly bullish — the market grows increasingly fragile. Any stall in upward momentum can trigger a rapid unwind as traders rush to exit simultaneously.
Goldman Sachs analysts were cited in multiple media reports describing current market conditions as a "semi-irrational chasing mode" — widely interpreted as a reference to the semiconductor-driven surge powering the Nasdaq higher.
Semiconductor stocks are at the center of this dynamic. The bullish momentum in the Nasdaq-listed PHLX Semiconductor Sector index (SOX), as measured by the 14-week relative strength index (RSI), has reached its strongest level since 1999 — the height of the dot-com bubble — according to TradingView data. That's a historically significant warning signal about the sustainability of the current rally.
What it means for Bitcoin investors
For Bitcoin holders and traders, the current environment is a double-edged sword. The same speculative energy that has helped push BTC above $80,000 is concentrated in equity markets in a way that has historically preceded sharp corrections. If the S&P 500 call options frenzy unwinds — whether due to disappointing earnings, macro data, or simple exhaustion — the resulting volatility in stocks is likely to hit crypto markets hard given the strengthening correlation.
The near-term outlook therefore hinges on whether Wall Street's risk appetite can sustain itself at current extremes — or whether the record options binge marks the peak of the current speculative cycle.

Bitcoin is increasingly being favored over gold as a tool for hedging against currency devaluation, according to analysts at JPMorgan. According to PANews, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, Managing Director at JPMorgan, noted that Bitcoin ETFs have seen inflows for the third consecutive month in May, while gold ETFs are still recovering from outflows experienced during the onset of the Iran conflict in March. This trend indicates that retail investors are opting for Bitcoin over gold in devaluation hedge trades.

The analysts also highlighted that Bitcoin purchases are not limited to retail investors through ETFs. JPMorgan's proxy indicators based on CME Bitcoin futures and offshore perpetual futures positions have reached new highs, suggesting that institutional investors are also increasing their exposure. Additionally, momentum signals for both Bitcoin and gold have rebounded since the conflict began.

Chainalysis researcher Caitlyn Martin has highlighted Iran's potential use of Bitcoin and stablecoins for passage fees through the Strait of Hormuz. According to NS3.AI, Martin suggests that dollar-backed stablecoins like Tether may offer more practicality than Bitcoin for daily commercial transactions due to their price stability. This move could position cryptocurrency as a strategic tool for national policy.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced that its naval forces will ensure the safe and stable passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. According to NS3.AI, the IRGC stated that new regulations are now in effect following the elimination of threats from aggressors.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the United States has completely destroyed the Iranian military. According to Odaily, Trump asserted that Iran has no chance of victory and acknowledged this in a phone conversation with him.

U.S. President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran, stating that any attack on American ships will result in severe consequences. According to Odaily, Trump emphasized that such actions would lead to Iran being 'wiped off the face of the Earth.'

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has stated that U.S. President Donald Trump must choose between an improbable military action or reaching a poor agreement with Iran. According to Odaily, the Guard emphasized that the United States' decision-making options have become limited.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the global cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $2.6T, up by 0.04% over the last 24 hours.Bitcoin (BTC) traded between $77,146 and $78,914 over the past 24 hours. As of 09:30 AM (UTC) today, BTC is trading at $78,309, up by 1.27%.Most major cryptocurrencies by market cap are trading mixed. Market outperformers include BIO, KNC, and BABY, up by 27%, 22%, and 17%, respectively.Trump Declares End to Iran Hostilities, Oil Falls, Bitcoin Reclaims $78K — April ETFs Hit 2026 Record as Clarity Act Clears Key HurdleTrump formally notified Congress that US-Iran hostilities ended April 7, sending oil toward $102 and giving Bitcoin its clearest macro tailwind in weeks — the asset climbed back above $78,000 as the S&P 500 hit a fifth consecutive weekly all-time high and the Senate released Clarity Act compromise text that brings US crypto legislation closer than ever to a full vote.April closed as the strongest month of 2026 for Bitcoin ETFs at $1.97B in inflows, the CFTC chair signaled crypto perpetual contracts could be legalized within weeks, and crypto VC funding hit its lowest level since July 2024 — a reminder that institutional conviction in the market's near-term direction remains fragile.U.S. President Trump Ends Hostilities with Iran, Notifies CongressKey Takeaways:Trump informed Congress that US military hostilities with Iran concluded on April 7, following a temporary ceasefire that has since been extendedUnder the 1973 War Powers Act, Trump's 60-day war authority expired May 1 — the letter allows the White House to bypass a congressional authorization voteIran relayed a new ceasefire proposal to Washington through Pakistan on Friday, sending WTI crude falling nearly 3% to ~$102 per barrelTrump wrote: "Since April 7, 2026, there has been no exchange of fire between US forces and Iran"Senate Democrats are expected to challenge the legal interpretation that hostilities have ended, potentially triggering a congressional standoffSummary:Trump's War Powers letter is the most significant geopolitical development of the week for markets. The combination of the formal declaration and Iran's new ceasefire proposal through Pakistan removed enough risk premium from energy markets to push WTI below $102 — the first time crude has seen that kind of relief in weeks. For Bitcoin, cheaper oil means lower inflation expectations, a less hawkish Fed, and a cleaner path toward the $79,000–$80,000 resistance zone. The legal challenge from Senate Democrats adds uncertainty, but the market is trading the de-escalation signal, not the legal nuance.Bitcoin ETFs Draw $1.97 Billion in April, Highest Monthly Inflows of 2026, as IBIT Leads With $2 BillionKey Takeaways:US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $1.97B in April net inflows — the strongest month of 2026 — pushing year-to-date flows back positive at ~$1.47B, per SoSoValueBlackRock's IBIT drove ~$2B in April inflows alone; Grayscale's GBTC was the biggest drag at $280M in outflowsMorgan Stanley's MSBT, launched April 8, generated $194M in inflows with zero outflow days — a strong debutSpot Ether ETFs posted their first positive month since October 2025 at $356M; XRP ETFs hit their best month since December 2025 at $81.6MSolana ETFs recorded their smallest monthly total on record at $38.7M; cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows since launch have now crossed $58BSummary:April's ETF data is structurally bullish across the board — IBIT essentially carrying the entire category, Ether ETFs snapping a six-month outflow streak, and Morgan Stanley's debut showing Wall Street distribution is a real demand multiplier. The 13F filing season in May will be the next major data point, revealing for the first time how deeply Q1 crypto ETF exposure has penetrated institutional portfolios — a dataset that could significantly shift market sentiment heading into summer.CFTC Chair Predicts Legalization of Crypto Perpetual Contracts in the U.S.Key Takeaways:CFTC Chair Michael Selig indicated genuine crypto perpetual contracts could be legalized in the US within weeks to a monthThe CFTC is working to resolve classification issues that have forced platforms to use quasi-perpetual workarounds instead of true perpetualsSummary:Crypto perpetual contracts are the dominant trading instrument globally — virtually every major offshore exchange runs on them — but US-based traders have been cut off from native perpetuals by regulatory ambiguity. Selig's timeline of "weeks to a month" is unusually specific for a regulatory development and, if it materializes, would represent a major market structure shift: bringing the world's most liquid crypto trading product into the US regulated perimeter and giving domestic platforms a product they've been unable to offer competitively against offshore rivals.Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $78,000 as Senate Clears Clarity Act Hurdle and S&P 500 Sets New RecordKey Takeaways:Bitcoin recovered to $78,180 in Saturday Asian trading, up 0.8% on the week, after bouncing from a $75,500 Wednesday low on Iran escalation fearsThe Senate released Clarity Act compromise text banning yield on stablecoin reserves while preserving activity-based rewards — clearing the path for a committee markupCoinbase CLO Paul Grewal immediately signaled support for the compromise languageThe S&P 500 hit a fifth consecutive weekly all-time high; Nasdaq 100 also reached a record; Dogecoin surged ~10% on the week to $0.105 with futures open interest at a year-highZeroStack CEO: Bitcoin's range-bound behavior reflects macro indecision, not crypto weakness — institutional re-engagement "could move prices pretty quickly"Summary:Bitcoin's recovery to $78,000 is built on two genuine catalysts — the Iran de-escalation and the Clarity Act breakthrough — rather than short-covering or thin liquidity moves. The Clarity Act compromise in particular is underappreciated: resolving the yield-on-reserves standoff between crypto firms and bank lobbyists removes the last major sticking point blocking a Senate committee markup. Combined with equities at all-time highs and oil retreating, the setup heading into next week is the most constructive it's been since early April — contingent on the Iran ceasefire holding.Crypto Venture Capital Funding Drops 74% in April 2026Key Takeaways:Crypto VC funding fell 74% month-over-month in April to $659M — the lowest monthly total since July 2024, per CryptoRank via NS3.AI63 funding rounds were completed in April; year-to-date 2026 total stands at $5.64B across all roundsMonthly financing has been on a downward trend since October 2025, coinciding with a ~37% decline in total crypto market cap over the same periodSummary:A 74% single-month VC funding drop is a sharp signal of risk aversion in early-stage crypto — venture firms are pulling back as market cap declines make exit multiples harder to justify. The October 2025 correlation with the broader market cap decline is telling: VC appetite tracks the public market closely in crypto, unlike in traditional tech where private and public markets can diverge. The $5.64B year-to-date figure suggests 2026 is on track for a significantly weaker funding year than 2025 — a headwind for new protocol development and ecosystem growth over the next 12–18 months.Market movers:ETH: $2305.69 (+0.94%)BNB: $615.42 (-0.32%)XRP: $1.3856 (+0.67%)SOL: $83.94 (-0.11%)TRX: $0.3299 (+1.13%)DOGE: $0.10765 (-0.32%)WBTC: $78093.72 (+1.31%)U: $1 (-0.02%)XAUT: $4600.16 (+0.70%)BCH: $449 (+1.31%)

Japan's Finance Ministry official, Atsushi Mimura, stated on Friday that speculative activities in the market continue, indicating Japan's readiness to intervene to support the yen. According to Jin10, when asked about potential intervention by Tokyo in the currency market, Mimura said, "I do not intend to comment on the actions we will take next. But I want to tell you that Japan's Golden Week holiday has just begun." Mimura declined to comment on whether Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Thursday. When questioned about whether exchange rate fluctuations are still considered speculative, Mimura responded, "My view has not changed." Analysts note that due to the Golden Week holiday, Japan's stock market will be closed from Monday to Wednesday next week. This could lead to significant yen volatility due to insufficient market liquidity.

U.S. President Donald Trump is set to receive a briefing from U.S. Central Command Commander Brad Cooper on Thursday regarding new plans for potential military action against Iran, according to Jin10. The briefing indicates Trump's serious consideration of resuming large-scale military operations to break the negotiation deadlock or deliver a decisive blow before ending the conflict. Three informed sources revealed that the Central Command has prepared a plan for a 'swift and powerful' strike against Iran, potentially targeting infrastructure. The expectation is that Iran will then show greater flexibility on nuclear issues and return to the negotiating table.

Another plan expected to be presented to Trump involves controlling parts of the Strait of Hormuz to restore commercial shipping access. A source mentioned that such actions might include ground forces. Additionally, a previously discussed option that may be raised in the briefing is conducting special forces operations to secure Iran's high-enriched uranium reserves. Cooper had previously briefed Trump on February 26, and two days later, the U.S. and Israel launched a war against Iran. A person close to Trump stated that it was that briefing that led to Trump's decision to go to war.

Iran's representative to the United Nations has expressed strong opposition to what it describes as U.S. piracy against Iranian vessels, according to Odaily. In a letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the Iranian envoy stated that Iran reserves the right to retaliate and holds the United States accountable for the implications of its actions on regional and global security. The letter also urged the UN Security Council to demand the immediate release of the seized Iranian ships.

Strategy has acquired $2.54 billion worth of Bitcoin between April 13 and April 19, increasing its total holdings to 815,061 BTC. According to NS3.AI, this acquisition positions Strategy ahead of BlackRock's IBIT, making it the largest institutional holder of Bitcoin. The company financed a significant portion of this purchase through its STRC perpetual preferred stock. SEC filings reveal that Strategy raised nearly $3.3 billion from approximately 33 million new STRC shares and an additional $438 million from common stock during the period from April 1 to April 19. On April 17, Strategy proposed a change in STRC dividends from a monthly to a bi-monthly schedule, pending shareholder approval at its annual meeting on June 8.

U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, is poised to take over as chair following Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference on Wednesday. According to NS3.AI, the federal funds target currently stands at 3.50%–3.75%, with headline inflation at 3.3%. Warsh will face the challenge of managing a $6.7 trillion balance sheet amid persistent inflation pressures. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely linked to Federal Reserve liquidity, will be a significant factor in his tenure.

On April 24, tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified, with Iran accusing the U.S. and Israel of being the root causes of regional instability. According to BlockBeats, Iran has prepared a list of counterattack targets and is expanding its military arsenal, while its leadership has denied any internal divisions. The U.S. has advised its citizens to leave Iran, and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that nuclear weapons will not be used, asserting that the U.S. military has completed its 'strongest' deployment in the Middle East. He warned of potential expanded strikes if the ceasefire fails.

Israel has heightened its military readiness, purchasing $200 million in aviation munitions, with its defense minister stating readiness to resume operations against Iran. Meanwhile, clashes continue in southern Lebanon, with Hezbollah engaging in ongoing skirmishes with Israeli forces.

The confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz has intensified, with the U.S. intercepting Iranian oil tankers. Trump has threatened to sink mine-laying vessels and even 'completely block' the strait. Iran has begun charging transit fees, marking a new phase in the standoff.

Ceasefire negotiations face increasing challenges, with the U.S. maintaining that the ceasefire remains effective, while Iran suggests potential short-term breakthroughs but insists that negotiations will not proceed unless the U.S. concedes. The focus of talks has shifted from nuclear issues to a comprehensive ceasefire.

Key points to watch include whether the strait will be blocked and if the ceasefire will collapse, both of which could directly impact oil prices and global market risk preferences.