WoW Street

Crypto markets enter July with a regulatory transformation in Europe, a packed US macro calendar that could reshape the Fed narrative, and a Robinhood product reveal that may redefine how retail investors access digital assets. The week of June 29 carries more simultaneous catalysts than any single week since the June 17 FOMC meeting — and unlike that week, this one arrives with Bitcoin already in technical no man's land below $60,000 and every bottom-confirmation signal still waiting for macro permission to activate.
Tuesday July 1: MiCA's Transitional Period Expires — Binance's 450 Million EU Users Are In Play
The most structurally significant crypto-specific event of the week is the expiry of the EU's Markets in Crypto Assets framework transitional period on July 1. MiCA now moves from transition to full enforcement — and Binance, which failed to secure a MiCA license, faces the prospect of losing access to its estimated 450 million EU users.
Coinbase and OKX have already begun competing aggressively to capture those users, according to CoinDesk reporting. The competitive dynamics MiCA creates among licensed exchanges — including the potential for Binance to eventually secure a license under a restructured EU entity — will define European crypto market structure through H2 2026 and beyond. For Bitcoin and broader crypto markets, MiCA's full enforcement removes regulatory uncertainty for licensed operators but introduces near-term user migration friction that could affect EU trading volumes and sentiment.
Tuesday July 1: Robinhood's "The World Is Flat" Product Reveal
Robinhood holds a product reveal event titled "The World Is Flat" on July 1, with CEO Vlad Tenev speaking alongside General Manager for Crypto Johann Kerbrat. The title's reference to global financial access — echoing Thomas Friedman's globalization thesis — suggests the announcement may center on international expansion, cross-border crypto or equity products, or tokenized assets available globally through Robinhood's platform.
Given Robinhood's recent trajectory — adding perpetual-style equity index futures in June, expanding its crypto offering, and cutting 10% of its workforce in the same week — this event could represent a significant product pivot. Whether it involves tokenized stocks, stablecoin integration, or a new international market structure will be closely watched given Robinhood's large retail user base and its potential to channel mainstream retail capital toward crypto infrastructure.
Tuesday July 1: Warsh Speaks at ECB Forum — The First Major Communication Since the Hawkish Dot Plot
The macro event with the highest potential to move markets is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking at the European Central Bank Forum at 9:00 a.m. ET on July 1. This will be Warsh's first major public appearance since the June 17 FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish dot plot showing 9 of 18 officials projecting 2026 rate hikes and a completely rewritten policy statement.
Markets are looking for any signal that the improved macro backdrop — Brent crude below $70 per barrel, the Iran ceasefire resuming in Qatar, and May's core CPI beating at 0.2% — has shifted Warsh's tone from the hawkish committee positioning the dot plot reflected. The Reuters poll consensus of no rate cuts through end of 2027 is the most hawkish economist outlook in years. Even a modest dovish adjustment in Warsh's language could meaningfully shift that consensus and provide the macro permission Bitcoin's accumulation signals have been waiting for.
Wednesday July 2: Securitize Lists on NYSE After SPAC Merger
Tokenization firm Securitize begins trading on the NYSE on July 2 following its SPAC merger — the first pure-play tokenization infrastructure company to achieve a public market listing. Securitize has been at the center of the RWA tokenization boom that Binance Research identified as growing 589% since early 2025, providing the backend infrastructure for BlackRock's tokenized money market fund and multiple other institutional tokenized asset products. Its NYSE listing as a standalone public company provides the tokenization sector with a direct equity market reference point and a mechanism for institutional capital to access the RWA theme through traditional equity markets.
Wednesday July 2: June Jobs Report — The Week's Most Important Macro Number
US nonfarm payrolls for June release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday — the same data series whose May blowout of 172,000 versus an 85,000 forecast sparked the rate hike repricing that drove six consecutive weeks of Bitcoin ETF outflows. The June consensus estimate of 114,000 — down from May's 172,000 — reflects a meaningful expected deceleration. The unemployment rate is forecast steady at 4.3%.
A print at or below 114,000 would confirm that May's blowout was partially World Cup-driven seasonal noise, as Vanguard's Schickling had argued, and would reduce the labor market pressure behind rate hike expectations. A second consecutive blowout above 150,000 would do the opposite — cementing the hawkish dot plot's rate hike projections and extending the macro headwind that has driven Bitcoin's worst monthly performance since June 2022.
The Full Calendar: What Else to Watch
June 30 brings the US House Price Index year-over-year for April (prior 1.7%) and JOLTs Job Openings for May estimated at 7.28 million versus a prior 7.618 million — a modest expected decline that would suggest some cooling in labor demand without signaling weakness. July 1 brings the Eurozone Inflation Rate flash estimate for June at 3% versus a prior 3.2% — a further expected deceleration that would be relevant context for the ECB's own policy trajectory alongside Warsh's appearance at the ECB Forum. US ADP Employment Change for June is estimated at 118,000 versus a prior 122,000 — the Wednesday private payrolls preview that will set expectations for the official nonfarm figure. US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June is estimated at 53.7 versus a prior 54 — a slight expected softening but still in expansion territory, consistent with the economy-performing-better-than-expected framing Standard Chartered's H2 outlook had noted. July 2 also brings US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 27, estimated at 220,000 versus a prior 215,000 — a slight expected increase consistent with gradual labor market normalization. The Fed Balance Sheet for July 1 (prior $6.736 trillion) closes the week's data releases.
The Setup: What Bitcoin Needs From This Week
Bitcoin enters the week at $59,700 — down 6.8% on the week, 19% in June, and 50% from its October 2025 all-time high. The technical no man's land analysis places major on-chain support at $49,900-$53,200 below and every key resistance level above $63,500. The accumulation signals — Glassnode at maximum, 79% LTH supply, 259,000 BTC accumulated near the floor — are all intact. What has not arrived is the macro permission those signals need to translate into sustained price recovery.
This week provides two specific opportunities for that permission to arrive: a dovish signal from Warsh at the ECB Forum Tuesday, and a jobs deceleration in Wednesday's nonfarm payrolls. Either alone would be incrementally constructive. Both together would represent the kind of macro shift that could finally align the accumulation picture with the price action — and potentially validate the $59,000-$60,000 zone as the floor that historical pattern analysis and structural on-chain data have been pointing to throughout June.

PA News reported that next week brings a "data tsunami" for markets, with the US June nonfarm payrolls report moved up to Thursday due to the July 4 Independence Day holiday compressing the trading week. The confluence of month-end, quarter-end, and half-year-end institutional rebalancing creates heightened risk of sudden liquidity dislocations and systematic volatility spikes. The macro backdrop has shifted: oil prices have fallen from about $100 a barrel a month ago to around $70 as the Middle East ceasefire holds, while the S&P 500 is up over 7% year-to-date but has struggled in June. Gold experienced another week of violent swings — dip-buying and safe-haven demand initially gave way to a sell-off driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data, stubborn inflation, a firmer dollar, and rising Fed rate-hike expectations, pushing prices back toward $4,000 before a last-minute rally recovered to the $4,100 edge.
Next week's key events include:
Sun Jun 28, 16:35 — 2027 FOMC Voter & Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks
Mon Jun 29, 09:00 — Eurozone June Industrial & Economic Sentiment Index
Mon Jun 29, 14:30 — US June Dallas Fed Business Activity Index
Tue Jun 30, 14:00 — US May JOLTs Job Openings; US June Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
Wed Jul 1, 07:50–08:30 — France, Germany, Eurozone & UK June Manufacturing PMI Final
Wed Jul 1, 09:00 — Eurozone June CPI (YoY/MoM, Preliminary)
Wed Jul 1, 12:15 — US June ADP Employment Change
Wed Jul 1, 13:30 — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey & BoC Governor Tiff Macklem speak at ECB Forum on Central Banking
Wed Jul 1, 13:45 — US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final
Wed Jul 1, 14:00 — US June ISM Manufacturing PMI; US May Construction Spending (MoM)
Thu Jul 2, 09:00 — Eurozone May Unemployment Rate
Thu Jul 2, 12:30 — US June Unemployment Rate; US June Non-Farm Payrolls (Seasonally Adjusted); US Initial Jobless Claims, week ending Jun 27; US June Average Hourly Earnings (YoY/MoM)
Fri Jul 3, 07:50–08:30 — France, Germany, Eurozone & UK June Services PMI Final
Fri Jul 3, 08:00 — ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks
Fri Jul 3, 15:00 — BoE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on fiscal and monetary policy coordination

A Reuters poll released June 26 delivers the starkest single data point yet on how dramatically the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh has reshaped the rate outlook. The median economist forecast now expects the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% through the end of 2027 — a complete reversal from a Reuters poll conducted in early June, which showed consensus around one rate cut in 2026.What Changed in Three WeeksThe shift from "one cut expected" to "no cuts through end of 2027" represents one of the most dramatic consensus repricing events in recent Fed forecasting history. Three weeks ago, economists anticipated that easing conditions — the US-Iran peace deal reducing oil prices, core CPI beating at 0.2% monthly in May, and improving geopolitical stability — would give the Fed room to begin cutting rates before year-end.Warsh's June 17 FOMC meeting delivered the opposite signal. The dot plot showed 9 of 18 officials projecting rate hikes in 2026 — not cuts. The policy statement was completely rewritten with reduced forward guidance. One official projected 75 basis points of increases. Five projected 50 basis points. The hawkish committee signal was sufficiently clear that the economist consensus has now moved beyond simply removing 2026 cuts from the forecast and is no longer projecting cuts in 2027 either.How This Compares to Other Major ForecastersThe Reuters poll median — no cuts through end of 2027 — is more hawkish than Standard Chartered's base case of holds through 2026 with cuts beginning in Q2 2027, and more hawkish than Goldman Sachs' assumption of a first cut in March 2027. It is broadly aligned with Oxford Economics, which had expected only language adjustments at the June meeting, and more conservative than Capital Economics' call for two insurance hikes in December 2026 and early 2027.The range of forecasts now spans from active rate hikes to a prolonged hold through 2027 — a dispersion that reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the Iran deal's oil price decline will feed through into measured inflation quickly enough to shift the Fed's posture before the end of next year.Why This Matters for Bitcoin and Crypto MarketsThe Reuters poll consensus of no rate cuts through end of 2027 is the most bearish possible framing of the macro environment for non-yielding risk assets including Bitcoin. The entire recovery thesis that has been built throughout June — Standard Chartered's "crypto Spring" declaration, Kendrick's three confirmation signals, Glassnode's maximum Accumulation Trend Score, K33's record 79% long-term holder supply — was constructed against a backdrop where rate cuts were expected to eventually materialize and ease the higher-for-longer pressure that has driven $6 billion in 30-day Bitcoin ETF outflows.A world in which the Fed holds at 3.50%-3.75% through all of 2027 is a world in which Treasury yields remain elevated, the dollar stays strong, and the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Bitcoin remains persistently high for institutional allocators. CF Benchmarks' Gabe Selby had identified the $50,000-$60,000 zone as where buyers historically step in — but if the macro environment remains higher-for-longer through 2027, the timeline for those buyers to return in institutional scale extends well beyond what most current recovery frameworks have modeled.The Reuters poll landing on the same day Bitcoin fell below $60,000, Tether overtook Ether, and the Russell reshuffle and pension selling created maximum closing volatility provides a sobering context for the week's end: the structural macro headwind is not resolving on any near-term timeline that the current accumulation signals can easily overcome.

Tên binance : KennyPhamVIP
Tên ngân hàng : PHAN HUU PHAT
Ae giao dich p2p $USDT né nhân vật trên ra nha
Mình có bán 4k usdt nó ko chuyển khoản ko trả lời tin nhắn , sau đó báo lỗi ngân hàng , chờ gần hết thời gian nó báo xác nhận là đã chuyển nhưng mà thật chất là không chuyển , chờ mình khiếu nại có sai sót tưởng sẽ ăn được tiền mình , dù có online cũng ko chịu huỷ lệnh , sau gần 4 tiếng khiếu nại nó mới nhấn huỷ lệnh
# Né thằng mặt lờ này ra để đỡ mất tiền và mất thời gian nha ae .

The Federal Reserve lowered its projection for GDP growth and its unemployment-rate outlook for this year, while sharply raising its projections for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation for this year and next year. According to Jin10, the Fed also raised its projections for the federal funds rate over the next three years.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said he is launching a push to advance Federal Reserve reforms, including the creation of five new special task forces.

According to Jin10, Warsh made the announcement at his first news conference in Washington and said the task forces will focus on five areas closely tied to the implementation of monetary policy: the Fed’s communications mechanism, the Fed’s balance sheet, how the Fed uses and relies on existing data sources, productivity and employment in an era of transition, and the Fed’s inflation framework.

Warsh said these topics have practical relevance and important effects and, in his view, merit a comprehensive re-examination. He added that he hopes most or all of the task forces can complete their work by the end of this year.

Warsh said the teams are still being formed and are expected to begin work in the coming weeks, with an initial analytical framework to be provided in the fall.

He also said the communications-focused task force is expected to ultimately propose “well-considered adjustment recommendations,” which may include changes to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections. The Summary of Economic Projections includes the “dot plot,” which shows interest-rate expectations from 19 senior officials.

Warsh added that most private-sector executives use real-time information that generally does not require major revisions, while government data is often revised.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said none of the 19 members present supported a short-term interest rate hike. According to NS3.AI, Warsh said the committee will reconvene in six weeks to revisit the issue.

The Federal Reserve's June meeting delivered exactly the hawkish shock that Capital Economics and Guggenheim Investments had warned about — and then some. Nick Timiraos, the Wall Street Journal reporter widely regarded as the Fed's unofficial communications channel, described the outcome in unambiguous terms: the dot plot showed a clear hawkish bias, and the policy statement was completely revised from beginning to end.The dot plot: 9 expect hikes, 6 expect multiple hikes, only 1 expects a cutOf the 18 officials who submitted projections, 9 now expect at least one rate hike in 2026 — representing exactly half the committee. Six of those 18 project multiple hikes this year. Only one official expects a rate cut in 2026. This is a dramatic shift from March's dot plot, which showed a median of one cut in 2026 — the starting point that most analysts had expected would move to "no cuts" at this meeting.The outcome significantly exceeded the hawkish scenario that Guggenheim's Patricia Zobel had flagged — "several participants with rate hikes as base case, some possibly with two hikes" — which now appears to have been an accurate preview of exactly what arrived.One participant — presumed to be new Chair Kevin Warsh — did not submit a Summary of Economic Projections at all. This is consistent with Stephen Brown of Capital Economics' speculation that Warsh might withhold his own dot, and reflects Warsh's previously stated skepticism about the Fed's forecasting and communication apparatus. The absence of Warsh's projection creates its own ambiguity: the dot plot's hawkish lean reflects the committee's views, but the chair's personal rate path remains officially unstated.The policy statement: completely rewritten, dramatically shortenedThe policy statement underwent what Timiraos described as a complete revision from beginning to end, with significantly shortened text. This is the Warsh communication overhaul that the market had anticipated in theory but may not have fully priced in practice. A dramatically shortened statement removes the forward guidance scaffolding that markets have been using to anchor rate path expectations — exactly the outcome Warsh had signaled through his prior criticism of Fed overcommunication.The combination of a hawkish dot plot and a stripped-down statement creates a specific kind of uncertainty: the committee has told markets that rate hikes are on the table (through the projections) while simultaneously removing much of the language that would have explained the conditions under which those hikes would or would not occur (through the shortened statement). Markets must now interpret intentions without the detailed guidance they have relied on under prior Fed leadership.What this means for marketsThe immediate reaction — gold down $40, the dollar index up 35 points, Bitcoin briefly down 1% to $65,417 — now has clear explanatory context. The dot plot's hawkish shift and the statement's complete rewrite landed as a genuine communication shock rather than simply a routine hold with minor language adjustments.With 9 of 18 officials projecting hikes and 6 projecting multiple hikes, the December rate hike that Capital Economics had called as "more likely than not" is now validated by more than half the committee's stated projections. The January 2027 timeline that markets had priced as the earliest potential hike — following oil's decline to $75 — may need to be pulled forward in response to today's dot plot, which specifically covers the remainder of 2026.For Bitcoin and crypto markets, K33's Vetle Lunde's observation that BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sits near 0.6 and that Bitcoin "tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets" makes the hawkish dot plot outcome the most significant single data point of the current correction cycle from a policy perspective. The macro narrative that drove the $5.72 billion in ETF outflows since mid-May — higher-for-longer inflation, hawkish Fed, rate hike risk — has now been explicitly validated by the committee's own projections rather than simply inferred from data.The 60-day tension aheadCritically, today's hawkish dot plot is being delivered simultaneously with the US-Iran peace deal's Strait of Hormuz reopening scheduled for Friday — a genuinely disinflationary development that, if sustained, would mechanically reduce the energy-driven inflation pressure that has pushed CPI to 4.2% and motivated the hawkish committee shift. The 60-day negotiation window for the substantive deal terms means the oil price trajectory over the next two months will directly test whether the 9 officials projecting 2026 rate hikes maintain that view or walk it back as energy-driven inflation eases.Warsh's communication framework — a shorter statement, an absent personal dot, a press conference whose tone will define how markets interpret the gap between the committee's hawkish projections and the chair's own unstated views — has fundamentally changed the information environment that crypto and traditional markets have been navigating. The adjustment to that new framework begins now.

The euro remained below 1.16 against the U.S. dollar as investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

According to Jin10, ING analyst Chris Turner said the Fed meeting could matter more for the EUR/USD exchange rate than the European Central Bank’s rate hike decision on Thursday.

Turner said the ECB had signaled further rate increases, and markets were speculating about another hike in July. However, he added that the market had already priced in an aggressive ECB tightening cycle and was reluctant to push those expectations higher, keeping the euro below 1.16.

He also said markets believed the Fed could raise rates later this year. Turner said that unless the Fed pushed back against that expectation at Wednesday’s meeting, the dollar should remain firm.

Lawrence Lepard has expressed that Kevin Warsh is likely to reduce interest rates, contrary to trader expectations for rate increases. According to NS3.AI, the CME FedWatch tool indicates that nearly 68% of traders are anticipating a 25 basis point hike or more by December 2026.