hamada Zyky

📊 Monthly Market Bilan – February 2026
₿ Bitcoin $BTC
For the first time in its history, Bitcoin has printed 5 consecutive negative monthly candles 📉. Since the crash of 10 October 2025, BTC has never fully recovered its structure. What started as a correction has now clearly developed into a bearish phase.
Bitcoin opened February around $78K and closed near $62K, marking a heavy monthly decline. Throughout the entire month, no real rebound signal appeared. Every attempt to stabilize price lacked momentum, and no bullish structure was formed.
The Fear & Greed Index remained in Extreme Fear 😰, confirming that confidence has not returned to the market. Sentiment is weak and positioning remains defensive.
On-chain data shows approximately $4B+ in outflows over 5 consecutive weeks 💸 — the longest sustained selling streak since Bitcoin’s launch. This confirms continued distribution and capital leaving the market rather than accumulation.
Technically, the RSI continues to reflect a bearish trend 📊, supporting downside momentum. There are currently no confirmed reversal signals.
🌍 Macro Environment
The macro backdrop deteriorated further in February.
GDP data came negative 📉, PPI was negative while inflation continued rising 📈. This combination increases stagflation concerns and reduces the probability of supportive monetary easing in the short term.
At the end of the month, geopolitical tension escalated dramatically with the beginning of a war between Israel, the USA, and Iran 🌍⚠️. This reinforced global uncertainty and strengthened the overall risk-off environment.
🎯 Final Conclusion
February confirmed the continuation of the bearish cycle.
Bitcoin fell from $78K to $62K, outflows intensified, macro conditions worsened, and sentiment remained in extreme fear. Capital is defensive, liquidity is cautious, and the broader environment remains risk-off.
There are currently no confirmed rebound signals. Structure, macro data, and capital flows all align with a continuing bearish phase.


#IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead #USIsraelStrikeIran #priceaction #Marketstructure #RiskManagement

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin started the week around $64K and closed near $65K, spending most of the week inside a clear range. There was movement, volatility, and emotion — but no real trend. The market remained structurally compressed.
On Wednesday 25/02 🚀, BTC delivered a strong rebound of about +8% in one day. The move looked powerful and aggressive, pushing price toward resistance. However, buyers failed to break the key level, and by Friday the price had reintegrated back into the range. This confirms that the breakout lacked follow-through strength.
On Friday 📉, the PPI data came in negative, meaning inflation pressures increased. Higher inflation reduces the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the short term. Despite this macro pressure, BTC did not collapse — it simply stayed capped inside its range.
On Saturday 🌍, geopolitical tension escalated significantly after a coordinated US and Israel strike on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader. Normally, such an event could trigger strong panic selling. Instead, the reaction was volatile but controlled. No structural breakdown occurred.
However, sentiment remains weak ⚠️. The Fear & Greed Index is at 14 (Extreme Fear). Even if price is stable around $65K, market psychology remains defensive and risk-off.
The conclusion for BTC: volatility increased, a breakout attempt failed, and the market continues to move inside a range under fragile sentiment.
🪙 Gold (XAU)
Gold reacted more in line with the macro environment. Rising geopolitical risk 🌍 and persistent inflation pressure 📊 supported safe-haven demand. In a context where rate cuts are less likely and uncertainty is rising, gold held relative strength.
While Bitcoin stayed trapped between $64K–$66K, gold benefited from defensive flows and maintained stronger underlying support.
🧠 Market Environment
Inflation pressure remains elevated 📈, rate-cut expectations are fading, and geopolitical risk has increased. Markets are not in panic mode, but the tone is clearly cautious.
Under the surface, this is still a risk-off environment. Price is holding, but confidence is not back.


#WeeklyMarketHighlights #MarketAnalysis #USIsraelStrikeIran #IranConfirmsKhameneiIsDead #GoldSilverOilSurge

This week, Bitcoin moved inside a narrow but heavy range between $69,000 and $66,900.
Price action remained compressed, with volatility inside the range, but no real bullish breakout.

The market is not collapsing — but it is clearly under pressure.

📉 Range Market With Bearish Bias

Bitcoin failed to reclaim higher levels above $69K and continued to trade defensively. Every attempt to push higher was met with selling pressure.

This kind of structure shows:

Buyers are cautious

Sellers are still active

Momentum is weak

The market is consolidating, but the direction of pressure remains slightly downward.

💸 Outflows Continue

ETF outflows persisted this week, confirming that institutional demand remains soft.
Capital is not aggressively flowing back into Bitcoin.

Liquidity conditions remain tight, and risk appetite is limited.

🐋 Whale Risk Reduction

Some large holders appear to be reducing exposure.
This does not signal panic — it signals risk management.

In a risk-off environment, large players prefer capital preservation over aggressive positioning.

😨 Sentiment: Extreme Fear

The Fear & Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear at 12.

This reflects:

Defensive positioning

Low confidence

Elevated caution

Sentiment has not improved meaningfully, and market psychology remains fragile.

🏦 Macro Background

Recent economic data created mixed signals:

Inflation data showed some moderation, but not enough to confirm aggressive rate cuts.

Growth data remains stable but not strong.

No major bullish macro catalyst emerged this week.

This keeps markets in a waiting mode — and when conviction is missing, pressure usually dominates.

🎯 Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently:

• Ranging
• Under structural pressure
• Trading in a risk-off environment

If conditions remain the same, the probability of finishing the month in red increases.

The market is volatile — but bearish pressure still controls the structure.

#USJobsData #MarketSentimentToday #MarketUpdate #MarketVolatility #consolidation

Today’s data gave the market a mixed signal, and that’s why $BTC and 🟡 Gold saw volatility.

🔥 Inflation Came in Hot (Most Important)

📌 Core PCE (MoM): 0.4% vs 0.3% expected
📌 Core PCE (YoY): 3.0% vs 2.9% expected

👉 Inflation is still sticky.
👉 The Fed may keep rates higher for longer.
👉 Bond yields can rise.
👉 The $USD can strengthen.

🟠 $BTC → Usually pressured short term
🟡 Gold → Also pressured when real yields rise

Inflation dominates everything right now.

📉 Growth Slowed Sharply

📌 GDP (Q4): 1.4% vs 2.8% expected

👉 The economy is slowing faster than forecast.
👉 Rate cuts may be needed later.
👉 Recession fears slowly increase.

🟢 Medium-term positive for $BTC
🟢 Supportive for Gold

But growth is secondary to inflation at the moment.

🏭 Business Activity Softened

📌 Manufacturing PMI: 51.2 vs 52.4
📌 Services PMI: 52.3 vs 53.0

Still above 50 = economy expanding ✅
But slower momentum ⚠️

This adds to the slowdown narrative, but it’s not the main driver.

🏠 Housing Still Strong

📌 New Home Sales: 745K vs 732K

👉 Consumers are still buying
👉 Economy not collapsing
👉 Slightly hawkish signal

⚖️ Big Picture

We now have:

🔥 Sticky inflation
❄️ Slowing growth
⚖️ Mixed signals

This is a classic volatile environment.

Markets are asking:

➡️ Will inflation force higher rates?
OR
➡️ Will slowing growth force cuts?

🎯 What Really Matters Now

Watch:

📈 U.S. 10Y Yield
💵 Dollar Index (DXY)

If yields rise → pressure on $BTC & Gold
If yields fall → relief rally possible

🧠 Simple Takeaway

Right now, inflation wins.
That creates short-term pressure.
But slower growth increases uncertainty and volatility.

#PredictionMarketsCFTCBacking #USJobsData #TrumpNewTariffs #MarketSentimentToday #MarketVolatility

📊 During the week of 09/02–15/02/2026, Bitcoin entered a clear range between $72,000 and $67,700. Instead of trending, the market moved sideways 🔄, showing hesitation and lack of strong direction. Buyers were not strong enough to push above $72,000, and sellers failed to break below $67,700.

😨 Fear & Greed remains at 9 (Extreme Fear), keeping the market in a risk-off mood. Confidence is still low, and traders remain cautious.

📉 Inflation data was released during the week. CPI came at 0.2% (below the 0.3% forecast) and Core CPI came at 0.3% (in line with expectations). This was slightly positive and shows inflation is slowly cooling. Normally, this supports risk assets like $BTC 🟠.

However, despite the positive inflation data, the market remains defensive. The current structure shows consolidation inside a range, and Bitcoin is waiting for a stronger catalyst to decide the next move.

#CPIWatch #MarketRebound #MarketSentimentToday #btcrange #MarketUpdate

The crypto market went through a stressful and cleansing week, dominated by risk-off behavior, heavy deleveraging, and persistent capital outflows.

$BTC started the week around $78,000 and ended close to $70,000, but the headline numbers do not fully reflect the intensity of the move. During the week, the market experienced a sharp long squeeze, driving $BTC down to a low near $59,700. This move triggered a broad wave of forced position closures and accelerated capital flight.

Deleveraging Phase Continues

The violent decline led to a significant reduction in leverage across the market. A large amount of speculative positioning was flushed out, confirming that the market is still in a deleveraging and reset phase rather than a recovery phase.

This process was accompanied by notable outflows, both on-chain and via investment products, reinforcing the idea that participants are prioritizing capital preservation over risk-taking.

Sentiment: Extreme Fear Dominates

Market sentiment deteriorated sharply:

The Fear & Greed Index fell into extreme fear at 9

During the worst phase of the sell-off, it briefly reached 5, one of the lowest readings in recent periods

Although a small rebound followed, sentiment remains decisively risk-off, showing that confidence has not yet returned and that market participants remain cautious.

ETF Flows and Institutional Behavior

Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to register substantial net outflows throughout the week. There was no clear sign of institutional stabilization or re-accumulation, suggesting that larger investors are still reducing exposure rather than positioning for upside.

As long as these outflows persist, they act as a structural headwind for the broader crypto market.

Market Interpretation

Taken together:

Deep deleveraging

Extreme fear

Ongoing ETF outflows

Weak risk appetite

indicate that the market is still in a defensive and corrective phase. The recent rebound appears more as a pause in selling pressure than a shift in market regime.

This type of environment is typically associated with uncertainty and rebuilding, rather than strong directional conviction.


#RiskAssetsMarketShock #WhenWillBTCRebound #WarshFedPolicyOutlook #fear&greed #MarketCycles

January 2026 delivered a clearly bearish start to the year for the crypto market.$BTC opened the month around $97,000 and closed near $76,000, representing an approximate –21% decline in just one month. This sharp correction confirmed sustained selling pressure and a loss of bullish momentum. 📉

Market sentiment weakened steadily throughout the month. The Fear & Greed Index dropped to around 38, moving firmly into fear territory. 🧠 Confidence faded, dip-buying activity remained limited, and traders increasingly shifted toward defensive positioning amid ongoing volatility.

From a macroeconomic perspective, financial conditions stayed tight. Interest rates were left unchanged, reinforcing the “higher-for-longer” narrative and maintaining pressure on risk assets like $BTC . This environment kept markets in a risk-off mode, limiting upside attempts and accelerating downside moves. 🌍

Institutional flows were another key factor. Spot $BTC ETFs recorded approximately $1.6 billion in net outflows during the month, signaling weak institutional demand. 💸 These persistent outflows reduced liquidity and amplified price sensitivity, making the market more vulnerable to sharp corrections.

In derivatives markets, leverage was gradually flushed out. Several downside moves triggered cascading liquidations, increasing volatility and accelerating the sell-off. ⚠️ While painful, this deleveraging phase helped reset positioning after an extended period of elevated risk.

Adding to uncertainty, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by Donald Trump introduced new macro considerations. 🏛 Although Warsh is often viewed as more open to rate cuts and neutral-to-positive on crypto, the announcement did not provide immediate relief. Markets remain cautious, waiting for clarity and confirmation.

Overall, January was a difficult but important reset month. Sentiment cooled, leverage declined, and expectations adjusted to a more realistic macro backdrop. As February begins, attention shifts to economic data, liquidity conditions, and potential changes in monetary policy for signs of stabilization or continuation of the bearish trend.

#StrategyBTCPurchase #MarketCorrection #ExtremeFear #MarketSentimentToday #crypto

Bitcoin experienced a difficult and volatile week, remaining under strong bearish pressure. $BTC started the week around $88,000 and closed near $77,000, marking a decline of roughly 12% over the period.

Market conditions did not improve, and sentiment deteriorated further. The Fear & Greed Index dropped into extreme fear at 18, highlighting widespread uncertainty and lack of confidence among participants.

On the institutional side, spot $BTC ETFs showed no positive inflows. Instead, the market faced continuous and heavy outflows, reinforcing the bearish bias and reducing overall liquidity. This lack of demand made the market more vulnerable to downside moves.

At the same time, the derivatives market saw mass cascading liquidations, as overleveraged positions were forced out when key price levels broke. These liquidations accelerated the sell-off and increased volatility.

From a macro perspective, interest rates remained unchanged, keeping financial conditions tight. This reinforced a risk-off environment, pushing investors away from risk assets like crypto. Adding to uncertainty, the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair by Donald Trump introduced new questions about future monetary policy, contributing to market hesitation rather than relief.

Despite the pressure, the market is still holding together. This week was not easy, but participants remain engaged, waiting for clearer macro signals and a shift in liquidity conditions.

#BitcoinETFWatch #WhoIsNextFedChair #CryptoAnalysis" #bearmarket #Liquidations

The cryptocurrency market experienced a bearish week, with Bitcoin under clear selling pressure amid rising macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

Bitcoin started the week trading around $93,600, but momentum weakened quickly as risk appetite faded. Throughout the week, sellers remained in control, pushing $BTC steadily lower. By the end of the period, Bitcoin was trading near $86,000, marking a significant weekly decline and confirming short-term bearish sentiment.

From a sentiment perspective, the Fear & Greed Index remained in neutral territory around 45. This shows that while panic did not dominate the market, confidence was clearly fragile. Traders stayed cautious, avoiding aggressive positioning in an uncertain environment.

On the flow side, the market recorded notable capital outflows, signaling a reduction in risk exposure. However, these outflows were not driven purely by crypto-specific weakness. A large part of the pressure came from geopolitical concerns, particularly renewed tensions surrounding Donald Trump’s political stance, including the Greenland situation and recurring discussions around tariff policies. As often seen in crypto markets, geopolitical instability and protectionist rhetoric tend to push investors toward a risk-off stance.

Despite the bearish price action, there were no signs of extreme capitulation. The move appeared more like a defensive repositioning rather than a structural breakdown. Liquidity tightened, volatility increased, and traders prioritized capital preservation.

This week serves as another reminder that crypto remains highly sensitive to global macro and geopolitical narratives. In such conditions, caution remains essential, and patience often proves more valuable than forced trades.

#TrumpCancelsEUTariffThreat #Geopolitics #TRUMP #MarketSentimentToday #marketcrash