fed

في خطوة تعكس تسارع دمج العملات الرقمية مع النظام المالي التقليدي، أعلنت Circle (الشركة المُصدِرة لعملة USDC) وBlockchain Payments Consortium دعمهما لمقترح الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بشأن إنشاء حسابات دفع رقمية محدودة مخصصة للأنشطة المرتبطة بالكريبتو.
🔍 ما جوهر المقترح؟
الاحتياطي الفيدرالي يقترح السماح بنوع خاص من الحسابات يتيح للبنى التحتية الرقمية وشركات المدفوعات القائمة على البلوكشين الوصول بشكل منظم ومحدود إلى نظام المدفوعات الفيدرالي، دون منحها امتيازات البنوك التجارية الكاملة.
لماذا تدعم Circle هذا التوجه؟
تعزيز كفاءة المدفوعات الرقمية وتسويتها.
تقليل الاعتماد على الوسطاء التقليديين.
توفير إطار تنظيمي أوضح للعملات المستقرة مثل USDC.
تسريع تبني البلوكشين في المدفوعات العابرة للحدود.
⚠️ لكن… أين الجدل؟
جمعيات البنوك الأمريكية أبدت قلقًا واضحًا، معتبرة أن:
توسيع وصول الاحتياطي الفيدرالي لجهات غير مصرفية قد يخلّ بتوازن النظام المالي.
الخطوة قد تمنح شركات الكريبتو أفضلية تنظيمية مقارنة بالبنوك التقليدية.
هناك مخاوف من تآكل دور البنوك كوسيط رئيسي في النظام النقدي.
📌 الخلاصة
نحن أمام نقطة مفصلية:
إما أن نشهد تقاربًا تاريخيًا بين البلوكشين والبنوك المركزية، أو مواجهة تنظيمية جديدة حول حدود النفوذ، والدور الحقيقي للبنوك في عصر المال الرقمي.
القرار النهائي قد يرسم ملامح مستقبل المدفوعات الرقمية عالميًا، وليس في الولايات المتحدة فقط.
#CryptoPayments #USDC #Circle

This week is considered one of the most important weeks in the American financial market during February 2026, as it witnesses the release of a set of major economic data, some of which were delayed due to a recent short-term government shutdown. These data include the December retail sales report, the January jobs report, initial jobless claims, January existing home sales, and most importantly the January CPI inflation index, in addition to five Federal Reserve speaker events. All these elements will directly affect expectations for monetary policy, the path of interest rates, and investment decisions in stocks, bonds, and currencies.The week begins ⬇️

⬆️ on Monday (approximately February 9) with the release of December retail sales data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Retail sales represent a crucial indicator of the strength of consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. GDP. Estimates indicate an increase of approximately 0.5-0.6% month-over-month, with special focus on core sales (excluding cars and fuel) to measure underlying trends. If the data comes stronger than expected, it reinforces the idea that the economy remains strong despite previously elevated interest rates, which may reduce the chances of an imminent rate cut. However, if it comes weak, it may reflect a slowdown in consumption due to inflation pressures and high rates, thereby supporting expectations for faster rate cuts. This report follows the holiday shopping season, so it will have a significant impact on assessing the resilience of the American consumer ⬇️

⬆️ On Wednesday (approximately February 11), the January jobs report (Nonfarm Payrolls) is released, which is one of the most important economic reports ever. It was also delayed due to the government shutdown, and it is expected to show the addition of about 80-100 thousand jobs only, compared to December’s relatively weak numbers (around 50 thousand). The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable near 4.4-4.5%. This report is considered a “double blow” alongside inflation later, because it determines the strength of the labor market. If it comes strong (more than 150 thousand jobs with elevated wage growth), it will indicate that the economy does not need additional monetary support, thereby strengthening the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance. But if it is weak, it may increase pressure on the Fed to cut rates in upcoming meetings, especially with the noticeable slowdown in hiring in recent months

⬆️ On Thursday (approximately February 12), two important releases arrive: initial jobless claims and January existing home sales. Initial jobless claims are released weekly and provide an immediate glimpse into the health of the labor market; around 230-235 thousand claims are expected, and any noticeable increase heightens slowdown concerns

As for existing home sales (from NAR), they are expected to be around 4.2-4.35 million units annually. The housing market is suffering from high mortgage interest rates, which reduces activity, but any improvement may signal the beginning of a recovery with expectations of lower rates

These two releases complete the picture of the labor market and housing, and influence expectations for overall economic growth ⬇️

⬆️ On Friday (approximately February 13), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is released, which is the most impactful data point this week

Estimates indicate a monthly increase of 0.3%, and an annual rate of around 2.5-2.7%, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) close to 2.5%. Inflation has recently stabilized after declining from its 2022 peak, but the Fed is waiting for additional evidence of a sustainable return to the 2% target. If inflation comes higher than expected, especially in core components, it will reduce the probability of a rate cut in March or April, and may push markets to price in a slower cutting cycle. But if it is low, it strengthens expectations for an imminent cut, supporting stocks and gold while pressuring the dollar ⬇️

⬆️ In addition to this data, there are five Federal Reserve speaker events during the week, making monetary communication (forward guidance) pivotal. The speakers usually include members such as Waller, Bostic, Hammack, Logan, and others (such as Miran or Cook in some events). Their statements will focus on assessing incoming data, especially jobs and inflation, and the need to adjust policy. If they indicate caution (due to persistent inflation or a strong labor market), it will be negative for risk assets. But if they appear optimistic about inflation slowing, they may support positive expectations.Overall, this week is decisive in determining the path of monetary policy in 2026
The delayed data makes interaction with them more intense, and markets are extremely sensitive to any deviation from expectations. Investors are watching how the Fed reacts to this combined picture: is the economy strong enough to withstand higher rates for longer, or is the slowdown accelerating and requiring faster intervention? The answer will determine market trends for the coming weeks 🤔

#WarshFedPolicyOutlook #ADPDataDisappoints #DPWatch #Fed $ETH
$BTC
$BNB

Recently, the upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has called for a new FED TREASURY ACCORD, basically a framework that would decide how the Fed and the U.S Treasury work together on debt, money printing, and interest rates.

This is not only about rate cuts.

Yes, markets expect Warsh to support rate cuts over time, possibly bringing rates down toward the 2.75%–3.0% range.

But the bigger story is what happens behind the scenes.

Warsh has long argued that the Fed’s massive balance sheet, built through years of bond buying pulls the central bank too deep into government financing.

So his plan could involve:

- The Fed holding more short term Treasury bills instead of long term bonds.

- A smaller overall balance sheet.

- Limits on when large bond buying programs can happen.

- Closer coordination with the Treasury on debt issuance.

And this is where history matters. Because the U.S. has already done something very similar before. During World War II, government debt exploded from about $48 billion to over $260 billion in just six years. To manage borrowing costs, the Fed stepped in and controlled interest rates directly.

Short-term yields were fixed near 0.375% and Long-term yields were capped near 2.5%.

If yields tried to rise, the Fed printed money and bought bonds to push them back down. This policy is known as Yield Curve Control. It helped the government borrow cheaply during the war.

But it came with consequences.

Once wartime controls ended, inflation surged sharply. Real interest rates turned negative. And the Fed lost independence over monetary policy. By 1951, the system broke down and the famous Treasury Fed Accord ended yield caps.

Now fast forward to today.

U.S. debt levels are again near World War II levels relative to the economy. Interest payments alone are approaching $1 trillion per year. Even a small drop in long term yields would save the government tens of billions in financing costs. That fiscal pressure is why Warsh’s proposal is getting so much attention.

Other countries also tried something similar.

- Japan ran yield curve control from 2016 to 2024.

Its central bank ended up owning more than 50% of government bonds. Yields stayed low, but the yen weakened and bond market liquidity suffered.

- Australia tried a smaller version in 2020–2021.

When inflation surged, they were forced into a messy exit that hurt central bank credibility.

Across all these cases, the pattern was similar:

Borrowing costs stayed low. Liquidity stayed high. Currencies weakened. Exits were difficult.

If Warsh’s framework leads to lower real yields, rate cuts, and easier liquidity conditions, that usually supports risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto.

Because when bond returns fall, capital looks for higher-return alternatives. But bonds themselves could face volatility.

Less Fed support for long term yields combined with heavy Treasury issuance could steepen the yield curve and push term premiums higher and that's why this could become the most important structural shift in U.S. monetary policy since the 1940s yield curve control era.
#KevinWarsh #bullishleo #Fed