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On-chain data shows the OTC desks that Bitcoin miners like to use have seen their balance shoot up, a sign that historically been bearish.
Bitcoin Miners Have Been Depositing Big To OTC Desks Recently
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, BTC miners have been sending coins to over-the-counter (OTC) desks during the past three months.
OTC desks are platforms that facilitate a direct transaction between individuals or institutions. Such selling and buying is more discreet than it is on centralized exchanges, so it can be hard to track who is trading on these platforms.
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The analytics firm CryptoQuant, however, has used on-chain data to identify certain addresses that are likely to be associated with OTC desks that miners like to use.
These are the wallets that miners often transfer to and considering that miners generally move coins out of their reserve for selling, it would make sense the addresses that they send to would be connected to the sales somehow

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the balance of these probable miner “OTC desks” over the past decade.

As displayed in the above graph, the miner OTC desk balance had been at relatively low values earlier in the year, even after the cryptocurrency had rallied to its new all-time high (ATH).
In the consolidation period that has followed since this ATH, however, miners have made significant transfers into these addresses. As the quant notes,
Bitcoin OTC desk balances for miners have increased by more than 70% over the past three months, rising from 215,000 BTC in June to 368,000 BTC in August—an increase of 153,000 BTC.

The metric hasn’t been at such a high level since way back in June 2022. Considering these large deposits, it would seem like miners have been eager to move on their coins recently.
In the chart, the analyst has highlighted what happened in previous periods where the miner OTC desk balance observed a similar trajectory. It would appear that such a pattern has historically led to a decline for the BTC price.
As for why miners have shifted such a large amount of coins to these platforms, the answer may lie in an event that occurred back in April of this year: the fourth Halving.
Halvings are periodic events taking place approximately every four years that permanently cut the Bitcoin block subsidy in half. Miners make the majority of their income from the block subsidy, so it’s obvious how these events can affect their finances.
Miners initially held off on transferring to these platforms after this event, but that may be because of the fact that the atmosphere in the market was still bullish. As the consolidation lengthened, though, the miners may not have been able to cope with the pressure anymore, so they decided to sell.
Given what has historically occurred when this pattern has taken shape, it’s possible that BTC may end up feeling a similar bearish effect this time as well.
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Nasdaq-listed Semler Scientific announced it had purchased 83 Bitcoin worth $5 million, ballooning its total cryptocurrency holdings to 1,012 BTC, purchased for $68 million.
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Semler Scientific Adds More BTC To Its Balance Sheet$BTC
In what appears to be a move inspired by MicroStrategy’s treasury playbook, Semler Scientific has acquired an additional 83 BTC worth $ 5 million, including fees and transaction expenses. The development is a reminder of the increasingly popular practice of adding the premier cryptocurrency to the company’s treasury asset portfolio.
Commenting on the acquisition, Eric Semler, chairman of Semler Scientific noted:
We recently purchased additional bitcoins using primarily cash from operations as well as capital raised through our at-the-market equity program. We are encouraged by the growing institutional adoption of bitcoin. It was recently reported that for the first time, institutions own more than 20% of bitcoin ETF assets under management. We believe this increasing institutionalization will drive value for both bitcoin prices and for our stockholders.
For the uninitiated, Semler Scientific first added Bitcoin to its balance sheet in May 2024 when it purchased 654 BTC for $40 million. At the time, the company stated that it views the largest cryptocurrency by market cap as its primary treasury asset.
In June 2024, Semler Scientific made another purchase of 247 BTC, investing $17 million in the leading digital asset. The same month, the company announced its plans to raise $150 million to increase its BTC reserve.
Furthermore, the firm added another 101 worth $6 million to its steadily inflating BTC reserve earlier this month. The latest purchase reaffirms Semler Scientific’s trust in BTC as a long-term asset for its treasury. However, Bitcoin price has not witnessed any immediate volatility since the latest purchase was made public.
Increased Institutional Interest In Bitcoin and other Cryptocurrencies
According to data from CoinGecko, more than 320,000 BTC is held by 29 publicly traded companies worldwide as part of their corporate treasury. Unsurprisingly, the list is led by MicroStrategy, which owns over 225,000 BTC worth more than $14 billion.
The list comprises companies such as Galaxy Digital Holdings, Tesla, and Coinbase. These 29 companies collectively own more than 1.6% of all BTC in existence, underscoring the rapidly growing popularity of the cryptocurrency as a reliable asset to hedge against inflation induced by currency debasement.
According to major Wall Street players such as Goldman Sachs, the trend is expected to continue. Further, the approval of Bitcoin-based exchange-traded-funds (ETF) in recent months has essentially put regulatory approval on the top digital asset.
The positive effects of approving a crypto-based ETF have cascaded onto other leading digital currencies. For instance, the world’s fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, Solana (SOL), has piqued institutional interest in recent months.
Similarly, despite the less-than-ideal market conditions, Ethereum-based ETFs in the US have witnessed a strong demand in recent months, attracting around $98 million in inflows.
Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin ETFs have earned almost $18 billion. However, despite the overwhelming success of such ETFs, some institutional investors remain hesitant, believing that the interest has largely been driven by retail investors.
With the changing macro-outlook spurred by the US Federal Reserve’s long-awaited interest rate cuts beginning in September 2024, there could be renewed institutional interest in the orange coin.

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Introduction

Renowned crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has conveyed his belief that Ethereum (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, may soon surpass Bitcoin (BTC) in performance. His optimistic forecast arrives amid notable price volatility for both leading cryptocurrencies, with Cowen suggesting that Ethereum's current downward trend will conclude by the year's end, paving the way for a rebound.

Ethereum On Track To Outperform Bitcoin

In a recent appearance on the Bankless podcast, Cowen offered a thorough examination of the current landscape of the crypto market, focusing on the price dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum in relation to past bull cycles. He shared his perspective on Ethereum's prospects, asserting that the cryptocurrency is likely to outperform Bitcoin in the forthcoming bull cycle.
Cowen pointed out that the Third Quarter (Q3) of 2024 has been relatively uneventful, with both August and September witnessing sharp price drops and prevailing negative sentiment across the broader crypto market. He anticipates that Ethereum could experience further declines before any significant recovery in price occurs.
The analyst highlighted Ethereum's distinct trend patterns observed during previous cycles, noting that the ETH/BTC trading pair typically peaks, hits a low, and then forms a lower high. He recalled that in 2016, Ethereum first broke support, reached a peak, and then faced a decline exceeding 70%. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency eventually rebounded and resumed its upward path in the post-halving year.
Cowen emphasized that this unique price behavior has consistently recurred in each bull cycle, and Ethereum appears to be on a similar path currently. Historically, in prior bull cycles, Ethereum has outshone Bitcoin, and Cowen is optimistic that this trend may repeat itself in the current cycle.
Consequently, Cowen predicts an impending pivot from the Federal Reserve (FED), which he believes will lead the ETH/BTC pair to reach a price bottom by the close of the year. The analyst foresees that Ethereum's price may drop below $2,000 in the Fourth Quarter (Q4) of this year before bouncing back to new highs.

Is The Bull Market Dead?

During the podcast, Cowen faced numerous inquiries, the most pressing being, “Is the bull market over?” This question stems from the current conditions within the crypto market. Following Bitcoin’s all-time high exceeding $73,000 in March 2024, the cryptocurrency has been on a substantial downward trajectory, even dipping below $54,000 at certain points this year. This unforeseen bearish trend, following its halving event on April 20, has sparked speculation regarding the future of the bull market.

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As Benjamin Cowen articulates his confident outlook for Ethereum’s potential to outperform Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency community watches closely for signs of market recovery. His analysis sheds light on the cyclical nature of crypto prices and the factors influencing their movements. While the current market may appear challenging, Cowen's insights provide a glimmer of hope for Ethereum's resurgence, making it a focal point for investors and enthusiasts alike.

$BTC/USD Daily Update
Resistance: 73800
Key Support: 62600
Lower Support: 56700
Watch the inverse H&S pattern and hidden bullish divergence. BTC testing critical support at 62600.
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