Once again, #Bitcoin cyclical nature is showing up very clearly — and this time, it’s playing out faster than I initially expected.
If you view the market through the familiar 4-year cycle lens, the current picture isn’t that hard to read:
• 2024: Halving year
• 2025: Expansion phase, but not a broad “everything pumps” altseason — more of an altcoin narrative cycle, where capital rotates into specific stories rather than lifting the entire market
• 2026: According to historical rhythm, this is where the market begins its longer corrective phase
If the pattern continues, 2027 should be a recovery and basing year, setting the stage for the 2028 halving. Cycles never repeat perfectly, but so far the first half has tracked the script surprisingly well. I don’t expect the remainder to diverge dramatically.
Key similarities with past cycles
Last cycle, $BTC formed two major peaks around $60K and $69K. This cycle, we’ve already seen a very similar structure with peaks near $109K and $125K.
Technically, when Bitcoin loses the MA50, price typically chops between the MA50 and MA100 for a period before eventually drifting down toward the MA200. That’s exactly how the previous cycle unfolded.
If this behavior repeats, my base case for a cycle low still sits around $50K–$60K. If this cycle resembles 2016 more closely, the bottom could be slightly higher, closer to $60K.
The important takeaway is structural: this no longer looks like a clean uptrend.
Why this drawdown feels faster and more violent
This cycle is very different from 2018 or 2022.
• 2018 was a slow grind lower — a psychological bleed that exhausted participants over time.
• 2022 required systemic failures (LUNA, 3AC, FTX) to force true capitulation.
2026 is different. The market is now saturated with leverage, institutions, and ETFs. When BTC moves lower, liquidations cascade instantly.
In the last 24 hours alone, over $2B has been liquidated. Billion-dollar liquidations are no longer shocking — they’re part of the structure now.
Fast drops create sharper psychological pressure than slow declines, especially for traditional investors accessing crypto through ETFs. They aren’t used to crypto-level volatility. When price moves this fast, distribution happens fast too.
My personal, risk-focused investment strategy
Strategy 1: DCA into BTC & $ETH
I’ve already started accelerating my DCA.
“Accelerating” means my daily buy size is roughly 3x my normal allocation.
If $BTC trades below $60K, I plan to increase DCA intensity to around 5x.
I’m not trying to nail the exact bottom. I’m positioning for probability, structure, and survivability — because in cycles like this, staying disciplined matters far more than being early.
