BlackCat Trading Mindset

Once again, #Bitcoin cyclical nature is showing up very clearly — and this time, it’s playing out faster than I initially expected.
If you view the market through the familiar 4-year cycle lens, the current picture isn’t that hard to read:
• 2024: Halving year
• 2025: Expansion phase, but not a broad “everything pumps” altseason — more of an altcoin narrative cycle, where capital rotates into specific stories rather than lifting the entire market
• 2026: According to historical rhythm, this is where the market begins its longer corrective phase
If the pattern continues, 2027 should be a recovery and basing year, setting the stage for the 2028 halving. Cycles never repeat perfectly, but so far the first half has tracked the script surprisingly well. I don’t expect the remainder to diverge dramatically.

Key similarities with past cycles
Last cycle, $BTC formed two major peaks around $60K and $69K. This cycle, we’ve already seen a very similar structure with peaks near $109K and $125K.
Technically, when Bitcoin loses the MA50, price typically chops between the MA50 and MA100 for a period before eventually drifting down toward the MA200. That’s exactly how the previous cycle unfolded.
If this behavior repeats, my base case for a cycle low still sits around $50K–$60K. If this cycle resembles 2016 more closely, the bottom could be slightly higher, closer to $60K.
The important takeaway is structural: this no longer looks like a clean uptrend.
Why this drawdown feels faster and more violent
This cycle is very different from 2018 or 2022.
• 2018 was a slow grind lower — a psychological bleed that exhausted participants over time.
• 2022 required systemic failures (LUNA, 3AC, FTX) to force true capitulation.
2026 is different. The market is now saturated with leverage, institutions, and ETFs. When BTC moves lower, liquidations cascade instantly.
In the last 24 hours alone, over $2B has been liquidated. Billion-dollar liquidations are no longer shocking — they’re part of the structure now.
Fast drops create sharper psychological pressure than slow declines, especially for traditional investors accessing crypto through ETFs. They aren’t used to crypto-level volatility. When price moves this fast, distribution happens fast too.
My personal, risk-focused investment strategy
Strategy 1: DCA into BTC & $ETH
I’ve already started accelerating my DCA.
“Accelerating” means my daily buy size is roughly 3x my normal allocation.
If $BTC trades below $60K, I plan to increase DCA intensity to around 5x.
I’m not trying to nail the exact bottom. I’m positioning for probability, structure, and survivability — because in cycles like this, staying disciplined matters far more than being early.

Looking back at the entire period from 2021 until now, one thing stands out clearly: almost every time reaches this long-term red trendline, it does not break immediately. Instead, the market consistently shifts into a prolonged sideways phase before deciding on the next major direction.
History is very consistent here:
• 2021: Touch trendline → weeks of sideways action
• 2022: Retest trendline → range → then breakdown
• 2024: Touch again → large range → eventual breakout toward 100k
• 2026: Touching the trendline once more → reaction looks almost identical
Because of that, I don’t expect $BTC to lose this trendline in the short term. If the past continues to rhyme, the most likely outcome from now until roughly June–July is an extended range-bound market. Expect wide ranges, multiple rallies and shakeouts — designed to exhaust both longs and shorts before a real directional move begins.
The current market context supports this scenario:
• Funding hasn’t fully reset
• Retail is still actively buying dips
• ETF outflows exist, but there’s no panic
• The narrative isn’t dead yet
In other words, the market isn’t painful enough to form a true social bottom, but it also lacks the strength to start a fresh uptrend.
That’s why expecting an immediate dump straight to 40k feels premature. On the flip side, assuming this is already the final cycle bottom is likely too optimistic. The most reasonable scenario remains a long, frustrating consolidation, full of fake moves and liquidity sweeps, slowly wearing down participants before the next major expansion.
In phases like this, the goal isn’t to perfectly call the bottom or the top.
The real edge is position sizing, patience, and mental discipline. In the end, the winners aren’t the best predictors — they’re the ones who still have capital and clarity when the real opportunity finally shows up.

has now closed three consecutive weekly candles below the 100-week moving average.
As of writing, BTC has spent 13 days below this long-term trendline. Historically, whenever $BTC falls under the 100-week MA, the average duration spent below it is around 267 days.
The shortest instance was just 34 days, which occurred during the extreme COVID crash — a highly exceptional event.
So if we look strictly at historical data, the odds favor more time below this level, not less.
A sharp recovery isn’t impossible, but the longer price remains under the 100-week MA, the lower the probability of a clean V-shaped rebound becomes.
From my perspective, this is still a phase that calls for patience over anticipation. Expecting an early trend reversal here is premature.
#BTC

This morning, two signals stood out — and they’re not something the market should ignore.
First, the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 5, one of the lowest readings ever recorded.
Second, RSI hit 15, an extreme oversold zone that has only appeared during 2018 and the COVID crash.
Because of this, I don’t lean toward a scenario where $BTC quickly loses the $60K level. When both sentiment and technicals reach such extremes, markets usually don’t keep falling on pure momentum — at least not in the short term. Most of the selling pressure has often already been released.
From my perspective, the more probable path is a prolonged consolidation, followed by a slow, grinding recovery as the market rebuilds internal strength. This isn’t the phase that excites people. It’s the phase that tests patience.
History has shown many times:
these are the periods where accumulation quietly begins.
And accumulation, in my view, should be based on data, indicators, and probabilities — not on emotions or subjective feelings about whether price looks “cheap” or “expensive.”
Markets reward discipline.
They punish emotion.
#BTC

From my perspective, #Bitcoin current cost-basis structure clearly shows an ongoing holder shakeout this cycle.
First, Short-Term Holders (STH). At current prices, nearly all STHs are underwater, with BTC trading below the average cost of coins held for less than 155 days. With an average cost basis around $92K, this group is being forced to either DCA or exit at a loss. This is classic weak-hand supply being pushed out of the market.
Next comes pressure on younger Long-Term Holders (6–18 months). Both the 6–12M and 12–18M cohorts are now below their realized price, shifting the market from accumulation into a stress test phase. If this group starts distributing aggressively, it would signal deeper, cycle-level damage.
The key level I’m watching is $63,654 — the Realized Price of the 18M–2Y holder cohort. This acts as a natural on-chain support zone, where lower-cost, more experienced holders tend to defend positions.
SOPR data shows that STHs have already been largely flushed, while holding-time distribution remains stable. If $BTC holds above $63K, this move likely represents a necessary reset rather than a breakdown. A clean loss of that level, however, would open the door to a much deeper panic-driven selloff.

From my perspective, is not following the 2022 playbook. What we’re seeing now doesn’t look like a trend breakdown driven by extreme monetary tightening. Instead, it closely resembles the 2020 setup — a market positioning for a longer-term expansion.
Looking back at 2019–2020:
• The Fed ended tightening and began injecting liquidity
• Interest rates were cut
• Equity markets kept making new highs
That environment laid the groundwork for risk assets to recover and expand. What’s important is that many of those conditions are reappearing today: monetary policy is shifting more dovish, liquidity is improving, and market psychology is gradually moving away from the defensive mindset of 2022.
Because of that, the most reasonable scenario is this:
$ETH may still see another retest — potentially even a sweep of the April 2025 low — but that wouldn’t signal a bearish reversal. It would look more like a final accumulation phase before the longer-term trend fully reasserts itself.
#ETH #Ethereum