Everyone keeps asking “has Bitcoin bottomed?” So I checked the actual data instead of guessing.
Bitcoin lost $1.17 trillion in market cap since October. Down 41% from $125K to $68K. Five straight red monthly candles. $3.8 billion pulled from ETFs in four weeks. Fear & Greed Index sitting at 10. Extreme fear territory.
Sounds like a bottom right? Not so fast.
CryptoQuant’s on-chain metrics tell a different story. The MVRV ratio hasn’t hit the extreme undervalued zone yet. NUPL hasn’t reached the 20% unrealized loss level that usually signals capitulation. Long term holders are selling at breakeven, but past bottoms only formed when they were eating 30 to 40% losses.
BTC still trades 18% above its realized price of $55K. In previous cycles, price dropped 24 to 30% below realized price before building a base.
So where does that leave us? Two scenarios by summer.
Bear case: $50K to $55K if ETF outflows continue and the Fed holds rates.
Bull case: $90K to $100K if CPI keeps dropping, GENIUS and CLARITY Acts pass, and institutional money returns.
The market rewards those who prepare. Not those who predict. Know your levels. Have a plan for both.